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MANIFOLD
Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)
218
á¹€1ká¹€39k
resolved May 8
Resolved
N/A

Resolves N/A. To join, bet 1 mana or more. If greater than 50% of holders at the end are blue holders, everyone gets 10 mana. If at least 50% are red holders, only red holders get 10 mana.

I accidentally did YES/NO instead of blue/red: YES is blue and NO is red.

Related: https://manifold.markets/vi/red-button-vs-blue-button-except-pr

There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.

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When do we get the mana

Woah.

@Quroe oof

So, I purposefully stayed out of this market as an act of cordiality since I expected that claw back.

Even so, I'm surprised nobody has brought up the elephant in the room yet.

@Quroe nobody brought this up because you already mentioned it?

@Quroe I mean, if it's known that everything gets clawed back, then how can there be any elephant?

@AhronMaline @SavioMak The elephant is the 10 mana payout to the traders/voters.

@Quroe that's 2k mana altogether, which I expect was within budget for this experiment? I'm just not getting what you mean

Got this error

Negative balances & payouts too large as a result. Please tag @mods for help resolving this market.

bought á¹€99 YES

i think i just lost 100 mana on accident

@Cvill You'll get it back when the market is resolved N/A.

BREAKING: Blue wins with 51.2% when carried out in real life with life or death stakes!

https://thebsdetector.substack.com/p/we-carried-out-the-redblue-button?r=19iisj

@bens Unfortunately, not statistically significant though. Further research needed….

i dont get it

how does NA resolution work? are realized profits (i.e. from sold shares) returned too or just unrealized profits (i.e. from holding a position at resolution)?

@perfperfperf everything is returned

I dont get it. Are manifold users stupid, or do red voters have sympathy for the market creator so that they have to give out less mana? and will claim their own mana while claiming moral superiority?

@GunnTetrisClub bro forgot we can sell our shares

sold á¹€2,384 NO

@GunnTetrisClub I made 2k alr just from that

@Meek this is gonna N/A, it all gets clawed back

@AhronMaline oh true

@AhronMaline what if I just invest it tho

@Meek I think the profit from the N/A'd market gets subtracted from your balance and it goes negative

@AhronMaline then I just get a large loan