Red Button or Blue Button

Question

If Red Button has more than 50% when the market closes, Red Button resolves to Yes. If Blue Button has 50% or more when the market closes, Red Button and Blue Button each resolve to 50%.

This market is inspired by a viral thought experiment on Twitter that was most recently reignited by this poll. Obviously, this market is not an exact recreation of the viral red/blue thought experiment.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Red Button and Blue Button are most likely. See the market for live updates (16 traders, as of May 1, 2026).

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