If Red Button has more than 50% when the market closes, Red Button resolves to Yes. If Blue Button has 50% or more when the market closes, Red Button and Blue Button each resolve to 50%.
This market is inspired by a viral thought experiment on Twitter that was most recently reignited by this poll. Obviously, this market is not an exact recreation of the viral red/blue thought experiment.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ306 | |
| 2 | Ṁ101 | |
| 3 | Ṁ81 | |
| 4 | Ṁ74 | |
| 5 | Ṁ70 |
The problem with this market (and most iterations of this question currently on the site) is that, unlike in the original question, there isn't ever any valid reason, moral or game theory, to bet blue >51. Preventing others from losing mana is not a morally positive choice, and valuing your mana gain over other people's mana loss is not a morally negative choice.
In the original hypothetical there is a moral reason (it's the only realistic way to save everyone) and a game theory reason (it's the only way to guarantee not having to live on a planet only populated by reds (tongue in cheek, but also very much seriously cause fuck that)).
Besides that, it's also generally more cost effective to bet towards a 100% resolution than a 50% resolution, even if you for some reason were banking for a blue win. Not that I'm saying this is a flawed market; you can definitely profit by making a blue win happen. It's just that whalebaiting is a fundamentally different game than the one posed in the original.
@dgga Mostly agree. In both cases you have to worry about people with poor understanding and people who are wisely trying to save them selecting blue. You're saying it's okay to take their mana (a stand in for money) but not okay to save your own life at their expense. And I certainly agree that it's more okay. But a question like this kind of investigates the moral component of zero sum markets. Interesting to ponder even if the resolution of the market doesn't answer the question.
Another interesting component of this market is that it gives blues an opportunity to punish reds for betting on red without wiping them out. In the original reds are fine either way (in their logic) but here betting red requires risking mana.
And you're right about the 50% problem. I'm not sure how to fix that but the obvious strategy for blues is to put limit orders on blue at 50%. If it wasn't clear from the description, blue wins if the final displayed % is 50/50. Perhaps it would have been better if the market resolved to the displayed percentages in the case that blue is 50 or higher.
What unites people? Armies? Gold? Flags? No. Stories.
There's nothing in the world more powerful than a good story. Nothing can stop it. No enemy can defeat it.
And who has a better story...
...than the Blue Button?
I believe in the Blue Button's comeback story.