
Will the Department of Government Efficiency lead to at least 100,000 federal government layoffs by 4th of July 2026?
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100αΉ666Jul 7
76%
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Update 2025-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Buy-outs will not be counted toward the total; only other cuts/layoffs will count.
Only layoffs that sustain past any court orders will be counted (layoffs later blocked or reversed by courts will not count).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@venki I think you should probably just NA the market in absence of a solid source directly attributing some number of federal layoffs to DOGE.
@polymathematic I'm not quite sure, I'm going to need to end up finding better sources, open to ideas from commentators.
Estimates seem to range 50k-290k.
I would not by default include buy-outs, but only other cuts or layoffs, that do manage to sustain past any court orders.
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