super forecasting

People thinking they can predict elections from early counts lol

Counting is NOT random.

@HenriConfucius ideological traders are easy bait

There are whales on these markets, and there are sharks...

@HenriConfucius You are the easy ideological bait. Zohran derangement syndrome. He wins by10.00%+

@JackP then buy

@JackP I will put +100 mana if 40%

100 mana if 30%

@HenriConfucius You might be right here 😆

@JackP It helped most Sliwa voters went to Cuomo.

@JackP happens buddy

According to real clear polling average, it should be a +15% victory. It makes sense why U bet on it

however, atlas intel has a spectacular track record and a different methodology (RDR) which tends to capture non-response , geographic and other biases better.

I mean it still missed (Final gap is 8.7% vs predicted 4.5%). but closer than 15%

this happened in the Trump election, in Bolsonaro vs Lula and Argentina. Weird pattern.

@vdb do you wanna reopen this market for live trading? would be fun

@brod yes pleaseeeee

Closing this related market at midnight

Why the late moves?

@JimAusman

High quality polling Institutes (Atlas Intel) released polls from Oct30 and November 3. The race is much more tight than one might imagine (6pp gap and now 4.5 pp gap).

I am responsible for most of the correction. Either I will make a SHITTON of mana, or I'll lose quite a bit.

@HenriConfucius good call legend

If anyone would like to buy my limit orders for 10-20% and 0-10%

@MIMIRMAGNVS anyone would like to buy my remaining 0-10% shares pls uwu

What if he loses?

@FecalAbhuman "If Zohran Mamdani does not receive the most votes in the certified results, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket." As far as I understood, it resovles to "<0" in this case.