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MANIFOLD
Will US average gas price reach $4.300 in April, 2026?
315
Ṁ10kṀ450k
resolved May 1
Resolved
YES

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the national average price for regular gas is equal to or greater than $4.300 on any day during April 2026. Resolution source: https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Background

The national average retail price of gasoline crossed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022 at the end of March, driven by the war in Iran, which has led to significant disruption in crude oil production and trade, with many Middle Eastern countries' production facilities shut down or destroyed. As of March 23rd, the national average for regular gasoline stood at $3.96 per gallon, representing a surge of $1.02 throughout the month of March.

Considerations

The EIA projects crude oil prices could push retail gas prices to around 70¢ per gallon higher in the second quarter of 2026, though these projections rest on assumptions including that shut-in oil production will peak in early April and transit through the Strait of Hormuz will improve. The EIA suggests gasoline prices are already near their peak and will mostly moderate for the rest of 2026. Regional variation is significant: California currently holds the highest average for regular gas at $5.81, while Oklahoma offers the cheapest at $3.23.

This description was generated by AI.

Market context
US Politics
Iran
Middle East
Prices
Stocks
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Last day, to the cent. Congrats Yes holders, but also wow that was a close one

I did well here. Bought at 75%, sold at 5%, and it resolved yes. Follow me for free trading tips.

@Chrisjohn

"equal to" pulling its weight harder than any market I've ever seen

Well that was a rollercoaster

@Jack1 Can i change the market description and resolve No?

@vdb err, appears to be a “yes” as of today.

@DataDependent let's hope it'll change later in the day

@vdb aaa only updates once per day

@ShaneBo what if today is yesterday

@vdb you should use Time Machine and go back to when you created the question and remove the “equal to” condition

@Mochi they should've added Time Machine in the Manifold Shop.

@vdb it’s already reached As per market description so market resolves yes

@Jack1 will you hate me if i proceed anyways?

FFFFFFFUUUUKKKKKKK!!!!

At several points I held 5-7k shares. Now I'm finishing at minus 1.4k....

Meme gif. Sad Pablo Escobar, Wagner Moura as Pablo Escobar on Narcos, sitting on a suburban swing, hands in his lap, downcast.

bought Ṁ3,000 YES

By the skin of my teeth!

@Jack1

wait a sec what

@Jack1 bruh

@brod does it resolve to the stats below or the big red button

@ZandaZhu they haven’t updated the graphic yet

@Jack1 ggs, what a clutch! imagine if it was off by 0.001

@ZandaZhu yeah that was my concern. I knew it would be very very close

@Jack1 how did you analyze it 😭 I thought it was going to be close but still less than 4.3

@Jack1 was your view based on the kalshi market? fwiw i had it at ~45%

@brod the trades matched kalshi odds exactly, his model must have been very good to match Kalshi exactly!

@brod I was checking that but my main guidance was the average that updated every 5 minutes. It closed the day at 4.305

@Mochi how did you lose so much mana then?

sold Ṁ1,847 YES

@Jack1 theres an average that updated every 5 minutes ?? 😭 where can I find that

@Jack1 the kalshi market did not match with my analysis so I didn’t follow it

@Mochi same here

@Mochi sounds like your model is not very good. Might need to update it.

You had your bot copying Polymarket odds on the other one. 😂🤣 thanks for the free mana

@Jack1 like a coward I sold yesterday 😭 I must have been looking at old stats because I was thinking "wow, a 0.10 jump in one day? no way"

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