Official bet with economist Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan and Platypus Media about national gas prices. The bet has to do with the average price of gas in the US the Friday before election day, aka October 30th, 2026 (12pm est). I officially bet the average gas price (as dictated by GasBuddy) for the US will clock in above $3.60 a gallon, Justin bets the average price will come in below that.
At stake: $200 each to be donated to a Platypus charity of Justin's choosing
If your guess is the closest to the actual price, you will get free Platypus merch! (TBC - to be created)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ433 | |
| 2 | Ṁ282 | |
| 3 | Ṁ112 | |
| 4 | Ṁ95 | |
| 5 | Ṁ56 |
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Market's at 87%; we've got it 60%.
Luna (researched) - NO (10.0): AAA reported $4.0116 nationally on 11 August and EIA $4.079 on 3 August, but EIA’s monthly series shows prices declining after earlier 2026 highs. Qwen - NO (10.0): Fuel prices volatile but currently trend moderate.
Fleet consensus: NO.
@StaceyVanekSmith Hard to guess how long these above $4 prices will last. I assume it is a weighted average over the year. My guess above was based on only ~3 or 4 months of above $4 but I could easily be miles out if Trump decides to invade or something.
@StaceyVanekSmith thank you for this whole game. I'm not kidding, it made filling up my dumb little Ford Fiesta in Los Angeles a little less painful knowing our $6 gas was at least moving the average toward proving my bet right 😂😭