Resolves YES if the AAA national average regular gasoline price reaches or exceeds $6.00 per gallon on any single day in 2026.

Resolution Source

AAA Gas Prices — the standard national average for regular unleaded.

Current Situation (April 3, 2026)

• National average: $4.08/gallon (up $1.08 in March alone)

• WTI crude oil: $111/barrel and climbing

• Strait of Hormuz disrupted since March 2

• US-Iran war ongoing since February 28

• Gas prices lag crude by ~2 weeks

Historical Context

• US all-time record: $5.02/gallon (June 2022)

• $6.00 would be unprecedented — 20% above the all-time high

What could push it to $6

• Strait of Hormuz fully closed

• War escalation hitting Kharg Island (90% of Iran oil exports)

• Summer driving season demand spike

What keeps it below $6

• Strategic Petroleum Reserve release

• Ceasefire or de-escalation

• Demand destruction

• OPEC+ production increases