Will US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the national average price for regular gas is equal to or greater than $4.690 on any day during May 2026. Resolution source: https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Background

The national average retail price of gasoline crossed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022 at the end of March, driven by the war in Iran, which has led to significant disruption in crude oil production and trade, with many Middle Eastern countries' production facilities shut down or destroyed. As of March 23rd, the national average for regular gasoline stood at $3.96 per gallon, representing a surge of $1.02 throughout the month of March.

Considerations

The EIA projects crude oil prices could push retail gas prices to around 70¢ per gallon higher in the second quarter of 2026, though these projections rest on assumptions including that shut-in oil production will peak in early April and transit through the Strait of Hormuz will improve. The EIA suggests gasoline prices are already near their peak and will mostly moderate for the rest of 2026. Regional variation is significant: California currently holds the highest average for regular gas at $5.81, while Oklahoma offers the cheapest at $3.23.

This description was generated by AI.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 19% chance (85 traders, as of May 25, 2026).