Resolves according to https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-november.
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@Qoiuoiuoiu On the US side I read this today
William Alberque, a former head of NATO's nuclear non-proliferation center currently with the Pacific Forum nonprofit, previously told Newsweek the U.S. could be ready to perform some form of test within about six to 10 months, but would likely need three years to prepare for a series of tests.
On the Russian side, Lavrov said yesterday that it would take them months to prepare nuclear tests, therefore they decided to start preparations.
I'm not sure, maybe anyone has prepared everything in secret and it is ready to push the button. Or Noth Korea can do some smaller tests tomorrow.
We have 7,5 weeks left in 2025, and Polymarket gives 6% chance. For the 3 weeks left in November, this would be 2-3%
https://polymarket.com/event/nuclear-weapon-detonation-in-2025
@MiguelLM Good point! Still, feels like 1% is too low for the odds that (a) Russia's lying and is ready to go, or (b) Trump orders a once-off nuke test in Nevada.
@Qoiuoiuoiu I would say the highest chances for the next 3 weeks may be North Korea, but this may change in the next months depending on what Putin and Trump do.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing