Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Polymarket formally launches its platform for legal, regulated trading by users physically located in the United States by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. This means that US residents must be able to access, register for, deposit funds into, and participate in prediction markets directly through Polymarket's official website or application without the explicit use of VPNs or other geo-restriction bypassing methods.

Evidence for resolution will prioritize official announcements from Polymarket (e.g., on polymarket.com, its official X account, or other official communication channels), or confirmation from credible financial news sources (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, or major crypto news outlets citing official sources). The market will resolve to "No" if such a launch has not occurred by the specified date and time.

Background

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to wager on the outcomes of future events. In early 2022, Polymarket ceased operations for US users after settling with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for $1.4 million, which accused the company of offering unregistered derivatives contracts.

In July 2025, the US Department of Justice and the CFTC concluded their investigations into Polymarket without bringing new charges. Subsequently, in September 2025, Polymarket received a "no-action position" from the CFTC, clearing the way for its US operations, and announced the acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. These developments position Polymarket for a potential return to the US market.

Considerations

Despite clearing regulatory hurdles and acquiring a licensed exchange, Polymarket's official US relaunch has faced delays. As of early October 2025, Polymarket's website still indicates that the platform will "soon be available for US traders" and that they are "working hard to get the U.S. platform ready for launch." Reports suggest that the planned US relaunch has been delayed by an ongoing government shutdown, which has paused operations at the CFTC, the agency responsible for processing Polymarket's self-certification filings for new markets. Traders should monitor official announcements and the status of government operations relevant to regulatory approvals.