Will Donald Trump become the first dictator of the United States before 2030?
34
229
590
2029
13%
chance

I will let the market decide about resolution. If it trades for more than for 4 weeks below 1%, resolution will be NO. If it trades for more than 4 weeks above 99%, resolution will be YES.

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As of the recent rule revisions, this market cannot resolve, because probabilities outside the range of 1% to 99% no longer are tradeable on Yes/No questions.

So if we legally are not allowed to say that President-for-Life Trump is a dictator, this will resolve NO?

@HarrisonNathan US rules don't apply abroad.

@BrunoParga I guess it would resolve based on how many traders are from the US and forced to buy NO then.

I will let the market decide about resolution. If it trades for more than for 4 weeks below 1%, resolution will be NO. If it trades for more than 4 weeks above 99%, resolution will be YES.

bought Ṁ80 YES

Wish there was more clarification about the resolution criteria. What does a dictatorship entail? No more elections? Supreme executive power?

@DavidDavidson "I will let the market decide about resolution. If it trades for more than for 4 weeks below 1%, resolution will be NO. If it trades for more than 4 weeks above 99%, resolution will be YES."

a bit weird as it opens up for manipulation - but that's the resolution criteria.

bought Ṁ10 NO

I naturally interpret this as meaning "more power than FDR", who some people say acted like a dictator. But "enough power to serve three terms" seems like another reasonable standard.

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