This can happen at any point of his presidency, so for now the market closes on January 21st of 2029 but this can change to a later date.
It does not matter who assumes power next, so there’s no need for a junta to exist for the market to resolve YES.
I’m hoping that, if this happens, then it will be clear that it was the US military which removed him from office, so we don’t have to debate whether he voluntarily stepped down, whether it was an actual coup or whether it was carried out by the military.
If he is not the next person to assume the presidency, I will resolve this market as NA.
1,000
3.00Not sure it's a coup if a president is violating the constitution's 2 term limit and then removed.. might want to rephrase the title?
I've added this to my dashboard though: https://manifold.markets/news/us-democracy?r=U2llYmU
@traders I forgot to add that the market solves as NA if Trump is not the next president. Apologies if that’s not what you assumed.
@costlySignal thanks for the clarification, that's exactly what I assume when a question is phrased as "conditional on"