Even if Trump becomes a dictator, the market won't go to 99% for any extended period of time. This will never resolve YES

@SentientTree why

@NielS Market resolution criterion is Keynesian beauty contest. There are always going to be enough Trump supporters (regardless of what happens) that the market would never trade at 99% for 4 weeks.

@SentientTree should bet it down to 2% then, yeah.

The title of this market is very misleading. The resolution criteria have nothing to do with Trump.

Trump becoming a dictator is far more likely than this ever going to 99 ( and it'll only go to 1 if he dies)

I have changed the resolution criteria. The market now resolves NO if it trades for more than 4 weeks at 1% (instead of below 1%) and YES if it trades for more than 4 weeks at 99% (instead of above 99%).

@GreenComp, could you either N/A this or change the resolution criteria?

Here's an adjacent market:

https://manifold.markets/costlySignal/conditional-on-trump-assuming-the-p?r=Y29zdGx5U2lnbmFs

As of the recent rule revisions, this market cannot resolve, because probabilities outside the range of 1% to 99% no longer are tradeable on Yes/No questions.

So if we legally are not allowed to say that President-for-Life Trump is a dictator, this will resolve NO?

@HarrisonNathan US rules don't apply abroad.

@BrunoParga I guess it would resolve based on how many traders are from the US and forced to buy NO then.

@HarrisonNathan Even if Trump were a dictator, nobody would be forced to use Manifold Markets.

I will let the market decide about resolution. If it trades for more than for 4 weeks below 1%, resolution will be NO. If it trades for more than 4 weeks above 99%, resolution will be YES.

Wish there was more clarification about the resolution criteria. What does a dictatorship entail? No more elections? Supreme executive power?

@DavidDavidson "I will let the market decide about resolution. If it trades for more than for 4 weeks below 1%, resolution will be NO. If it trades for more than 4 weeks above 99%, resolution will be YES."

a bit weird as it opens up for manipulation - but that's the resolution criteria.

I naturally interpret this as meaning "more power than FDR", who some people say acted like a dictator. But "enough power to serve three terms" seems like another reasonable standard.