Will Donald Trump become the first dictator of the United States before 2030?
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45
แน€17k
2029
15%
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I will let the market decide about resolution. If it trades for more than for 4 weeks at 1%, resolution will be NO. If it trades for more than 4 weeks at 99%, resolution will be YES.

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I have changed the resolution criteria. The market now resolves NO if it trades for more than 4 weeks at 1% (instead of below 1%) and YES if it trades for more than 4 weeks at 99% (instead of above 99%).

@GreenComp, could you either N/A this or change the resolution criteria?

As of the recent rule revisions, this market cannot resolve, because probabilities outside the range of 1% to 99% no longer are tradeable on Yes/No questions.

So if we legally are not allowed to say that President-for-Life Trump is a dictator, this will resolve NO?

@HarrisonNathan US rules don't apply abroad.

@BrunoParga I guess it would resolve based on how many traders are from the US and forced to buy NO then.

I will let the market decide about resolution. If it trades for more than for 4 weeks below 1%, resolution will be NO. If it trades for more than 4 weeks above 99%, resolution will be YES.

bought แน€80 YES

Wish there was more clarification about the resolution criteria. What does a dictatorship entail? No more elections? Supreme executive power?

@DavidDavidson "I will let the market decide about resolution. If it trades for more than for 4 weeks below 1%, resolution will be NO. If it trades for more than 4 weeks above 99%, resolution will be YES."

a bit weird as it opens up for manipulation - but that's the resolution criteria.

bought แน€10 NO

I naturally interpret this as meaning "more power than FDR", who some people say acted like a dictator. But "enough power to serve three terms" seems like another reasonable standard.

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