MANIFOLD
Will Trump institute a transgender military ban within 24 hours of taking office?
129
Ṁ7kṀ39k
resolved Jan 21
Resolved
YES

This market resolves YES if Donald Trump, upon taking office as President in 2025, issues an executive order or similar directive banning transgender individuals from serving in the US military within his first 24 hours as president. Market resolves NO if no such ban is instituted within the first 24 hours.

Resolution criteria: Official White House announcements, executive orders, or Department of Defense directives issued within the first 24 hours of Trump taking office.

Sources: https://www.thepinknews.com/2024/11/25/donald-trump-transgender-military/ https://economictimes.com/news/international/global-trends/trump-plans-deadly-move-against-transgenders-serving-in-the-us-military-on-first-day-of-his-office-check-details/articleshow/115656318.cms

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@mods i dont know if th EO actually happened yet?

@strutheo i asked the discord

@skibidistCorrection: An earlier version of this article misstated the immediate impact of Trump’s Monday executive order rescinding Biden’s executive actions. It clears the way for banning transgender people from military service”

“clears the way” I think this is ambiguous

@Manifold should this resolve to yes?

@typeofemale see also your twitter replies, but it looks like current active policy is the 2018 memorandum

this was interpreted by the DOD as a default ban

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/1783822/5-things-to-know-about-dods-new-policy-on-military-service-by-transgender-perso/

@pseudorandomstring cool i'm resolving this to yes then

bought Ṁ100 YES

@jb456 is there an official interpretation?

@typeofemale I have not seen a definitive statement. I was just reading through the list of Biden EOs being revoked and noticed this one as likely significant but I don't have enough expertise on the previous EOs and other regulations to make a good judgment without studying it much more carefully as to whether the repeal of the Biden EO has the effect of bringing back the previous ban.

What if such an order is made but halted by the courts?

@Lexer resolves to yes, it is about trump

bought Ṁ20 YES

How would you resolve if he prevents people from enlisting but not from continuing existing service

@JoeBoyle I still think that is a no

bought Ṁ50 YES

@CraigDemel feeling some strong indications that the leak was a trial balloon from this article ngl

@RichardHanania do you think he will do it?

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