This market assesses the likelihood of India initiating a military operation against Pakistan before May 22, 2025. Recent events, such as the April 22, 2025, attack in Kashmir resulting in at least 26 tourist deaths, have heightened tensions between the two nations. Resolution will be based on credible reports from reputable news outlets confirming such an operation.

• Update 2025-04-22 (PST): - Resolution Options:

  • The market will only resolve as Yes if credible reports confirm that India launched a military operation against Pakistan.

  • The Other category will not be used; if the criteria for Yes are not met, the outcome will be resolved as No. (AI summary of creator comment)

  • ALSO VERY IMPORTANT: IT HAS TO TAKE PLACE INSIDE THE BOUNDARIES OF PAKISTAN. BORDER SKIRMISHES DON'T COUNT