India and Pakistan had a skirmish at beginning of the year. Will they go for far again ?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between June 8, 2025, and December 31, 2025, India and Pakistan engage in a military conflict that meets all of the following criteria:

1. Duration: The conflict lasts for at least 48 consecutive hours.

2. Casualties: There are at least 100 combined fatalities (military and civilian) reported.

3. Official Acknowledgment: Both the Indian and Pakistani governments officially acknowledge the occurrence of the conflict.

If these conditions are not met by December 31, 2025, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

In April 2025, a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir resulted in 26 civilian deaths, leading to heightened tensions between India and Pakistan. Subsequent military engagements in May 2025 marked the most severe conflict between the two nations in over two decades. A ceasefire was brokered on May 10, 2025, with both sides agreeing to halt hostilities. (reuters.com)

Considerations

• Ceasefire Stability: The current ceasefire remains fragile, with both nations maintaining a significant military presence along the border.

• International Mediation: Global powers, including the United States and Gulf States, have been involved in mediating peace efforts, which may influence the likelihood of renewed conflict. (time.com)

• Domestic Pressures: Internal political dynamics and public sentiment in both countries could impact decisions regarding military engagement.

Recent Developments in India-Pakistan Relations:

• UK and India discuss 'counter-terrorism' cooperation after Pakistan ceasefire

• Indian general admits "tactical mistake" and loss of jets in Pakistan clash

• India vows to keep up development in Kashmir after tourist attack