Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, there is credible evidence that former President Donald Trump has publicly declared an anti-war stance, such as advocating for the reduction of U.S. military interventions or promoting peaceful resolutions to international conflicts. Acceptable sources include reputable news outlets and official statements from Trump. If no such evidence is found by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Donald Trump has presented himself as an advocate for reducing U.S. military involvement abroad. During his 2016 presidential campaign, he criticized previous military interventions and emphasized an "America First" foreign policy, suggesting a focus on domestic issues over foreign conflicts. However, his administration saw increased military actions, including escalated drone strikes and the deployment of troops in various regions. Notably, in 2017, the U.S. launched 59 Tomahawk missiles at a Syrian airbase in response to chemical attacks. (en.wikipedia.org) Additionally, the administration expanded military operations in Afghanistan and maintained a significant presence in Iraq and Syria. (foreignaffairs.com) Despite these actions, Trump has claimed to be the first president in decades not to start a new war. (politifact.com)

Considerations

While Trump has made statements suggesting an anti-war position, his administration's actions have sometimes contradicted this stance. The complexity of international relations and the evolving nature of global conflicts make it essential to rely on specific, verifiable statements or policies when assessing his position on military interventions.

• Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about a potential conflict between an anti-war statement and a contradictory military action, the creator has clarified that the market's resolution depends only on statements. Contradictory military actions will be ignored.