Will Meta release an open source language model that outperforms GPT-4 by the end of 2024
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Ṁ640Ṁ465
2025
62%
chance
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Will resolve to YES if Meta releases an open source model that acheives a higher average score than GPT-4 on the following benchmarks by the end of 2024:
HellaSwag (few-shot): 0.953
MMLU (few-shot): 0.864
AI2 Reasoning Challenge (ARC): 0.963
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Related news: Meta currently training Llama 3, and plans to ramp up to almost 600K H100s equivalent compute by the end of the year https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2QARHJR1sZ/.
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