Will the Alphafold 2 paper reach 30,000 citations in 2024?
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In 2021, Alphafold 2 was shown to be stunningly accurate in predicting the folding of protein structure, a widely hailed achievement in computational biology.

The 2021 nature paper presenting this achievement currently has 16567 citations . Will it reach 30,000 citations by the end of 2024?

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The scholar page linked in the description currently shows 30,020 citations so I expect should be resolved as "Yes"?

sold Ṁ22 NO

@Flangeball author inactive, and given the comment below we about to have a dispute with this question.

The scholar.google link given seems to be listing about 600 papers published before 2020. I assume they do not count towards resolution?

@Duncn
for years 1001 to 2019 I see 53 listed
for years 1001 to 2020 I see 71 listed
Where do you see ~600 ?

As citations have increased from 30020 to 30105 in less than last day then we have already passed 30000 + 71 and might pass 30000+600

Paper was received May 2021 and published July 2021 but authors will clearly have been working on it prior to this and I think it is possible for researchers to communicate, give presentations etc leading to things that are going to be in the paper being cited by papers published before the paper being cited is published. Some paper citations are noted as personal communication seems like good evidence this can happen. How much before? Not sure, it may well depend on how long the authors are working on the paper before it is published.

39 in 1001 to 2017 does seem like maybe too early but we have reached 30105 so I am not seeing issue with a yes resolution. 600 before 2017 might change my opinion but I am not seeing it at present.

@ChristopherRandles Also, fundamentally, the original author's post used the citation count on the linked scholar page, not discounted and not proposing any other method for counting citations. I think we have to stick with that.

@Flangeball I agree but I want to give Dunc time to respond and explain where his 600 comes from before calling mods to resolve.

@ChristopherRandles I did a custom range search, like you did. I'm not sure why we see different numbers: https://scholar.google.com.au/scholar?q=alphafold+accurate+protein&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&as_ylo=1900&as_yhi=2020

@Duncn I'm also seeing "About 17,800 results" when selecting "since 2020", so the results are highly variable.

@Duncn Your link 2 above does show 648 but that seems to be searching for
"alphafold accurate protein"

What I am doing is going to the provided link
https://scholar.google.com.au/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=alphafold+accurate+protein&btnG=

Clicking on "Cited by 30140" then doing the time custom ranges.

I could be wrong but I think what I am doing is searching among the 30140 citations whereas you are still searching on "alphafold accurate protein".

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