Will MCTS methods by used by any frontier LLM by EOY 2024
5
90Ṁ204resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES on any public confirmation that they are using such methods, NO if no confirmation exists by EOY
Demis saying that they’re trying to incorporate planning/MCTS: https://www.wired.com/story/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis-chatgpt/
Noam Brown saying similar thing: https://twitter.com/polynoamial/status/1676971503261454340
Similar resolution criteria (definition of frontier, etc.) to https://manifold.markets/marcer/will-dpo-or-an-explicitly-dpobased?r=dGhlc2hvcnRicmVhZA
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ53 | |
| 2 | Ṁ18 | |
| 3 | Ṁ4 | |
| 4 | Ṁ3 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?
70% chance
Will LLMs Daydream by EOY 2026?
20% chance
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?
What will Manifolders mostly use LLMs for, by EOY 2025?
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?
32% chance
Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?
41% chance
LLMs by EOY 2025: Will Retentive Learning Surpass Transformers? (Subsidised 400 M$)
10% chance
Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?
26% chance
What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?