Will Ukraine default on any of it's sovereign national debt, to any creditor, within calendar year 2025?
A default is defined as not being able to pay debt by the time it's due, or not being able to pay interest when it's due (unless specifically negotiated a delay to those payments).
Update 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Federal Debt Definition
Federal sovereign debt means debt issued by a country's national (federal) government.
Debt issued by provincial, local, or private entities is not included.
The term federal is not related to the form of government or concepts like federalization.
Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Debt renegotiation clarification: If Ukraine defaults on debt but subsequently renegotiates that debt with creditor acceptance within the 2025 calendar year, it will not be considered a default for resolution purposes.
Example: Ukraine defaulted on debt in June 2025, but renegotiated it in December 2025 with creditor acceptance, so this does not count as a default.
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This is slightly tricky. Ukraine defaulted on some debt in June, 2025
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-defaults-on-sovereign-debt-payment-03267386
However most recently, and crucially while in 2025 calendar year, in December, they managed to renegotiate that debt, so given the way the question is phrased, it probably shouldn't be considered a default, because of that re-negotiation, which was accepted by the creditors, and the original debt cancelled.
https://mof.gov.ua/en/news/ukraine_completes_the_restructuring_of_gdp-linked_warrants-5507
@hidetzugu Federal sovereign debt refers to a country's national debt at the federal level (as opposed to provincial, local, or private). It's not a reference to a form of government.
@SCM i get your intent and placed my bet with it in mind but you are just wrong on terminology. The word you are looking for is "National". As in here is a plot of ukraine's national debt:
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/ukraine/national-government-debt
@hidetzugu Ok, to avoid any confusion, I replaced the term "federal" with "national" in the question.