Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons? | Manifold

Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?

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This market resolves:

YES - if Ukrainian army has de-facto control over at least 50% of Crimea territory, and Russia had NOT used tactical nor strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine before that day, and not uses them for at least 4 weeks after that day.

NO - if Ukrainian army has de-facto control over at least 50% of Crimea territory, and Russia had used tactical or strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine before that day or within 4 weeks after that day.

N/A - If the war ends before Crimea is liberated by Ukranian forces, including the case where Crimea is returned to Ukraine as part of a peace deal.

The intention to estimate whether Russia is likely to use nukes to prevent loosing Crimea.

Close date updated to 2024-01-01 3:59 am

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What if 50% of Crimea is taken, Russia threatens to use nukes (potentially with a demonstration), and subsequently Russia retakes Crimea?

predicts NO

Extended.

@theservy Should this re-open and extend?

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