Resolves YES if Manifold's Brier score (mean squared error) is lower than 0.16721 (source) at the end of 2024. Resolution is according to the latest Brier score listed on the official calibration page at the end date and time (end of 2024, UTC).
Resolves NO if Manifold's Brier score is equal to or greater than 0.16721 at the end of 2024.
Other details:
The published Brier score might not be a perfect indicator of how "accurate" Manifold really is.
The calculation is based on a sample of resolved binary questions, so it'll fluctuate every hour as the selected sample is randomized.
The Brier score is trade-weighted and not time weighted.
However, I'm going to stick with using the final published Brier score because:
It's easy and unambiguous
It will likely be a good quantitative indicator of Manifold's aggregate accuracy.
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