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Resolves YES if Nikki Haley wins any county won by Trump in 2020 in any state’s March 5 primary.
Details:
This market applies to any state holding a caucus or primary for the Republican presidential nomination on March 5.
A county “won by Haley” is one that casts a plurality or majority of its votes for Nikki Haley.
A county “won by Trump” is one that casted a plurality or majority of its votes for Donald Trump in the 2020 general election (NOT the 2020 primaries).
Resolves NO if Nikki Haley does not win any counties on March 5.
Resolves NO if Nikki Haley wins some number of counties on March 5, but none of them were won by Trump in 2020’s general election.
The market will remain active if Nikki Haley drops out prior to all polls closing on March 5.
For the purposes of this market, county-equivalents including independent Virginia cities and Alaskan boroughs qualify as “counties”. Extra important: The Unorganized Borough counts as one county, not the census areas within it! The unorganized Borough went Democratic in 2020.
Massachusetts is automatically excepted from this market because Trump did not win any of its counties in 2020. (sorry Massachusetts)
Beware: towns in Vermont, Massachusetts, etc. are NOT counties, only parts of counties!
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