Will Haley win any Republican counties on Super Tuesday?
46
960Ṁ17k
resolved Mar 7
Resolved
YES

Please read before betting

Resolves YES if Nikki Haley wins any county won by Trump in 2020 in any state’s March 5 primary.

Details:

  • This market applies to any state holding a caucus or primary for the Republican presidential nomination on March 5.

  • A county “won by Haley” is one that casts a plurality or majority of its votes for Nikki Haley.

  • A county “won by Trump” is one that casted a plurality or majority of its votes for Donald Trump in the 2020 general election (NOT the 2020 primaries).

  • Resolves NO if Nikki Haley does not win any counties on March 5.

  • Resolves NO if Nikki Haley wins some number of counties on March 5, but none of them were won by Trump in 2020’s general election.

  • The market will remain active if Nikki Haley drops out prior to all polls closing on March 5.

  • For the purposes of this market, county-equivalents including independent Virginia cities and Alaskan boroughs qualify as “counties”. Extra important: The Unorganized Borough counts as one county, not the census areas within it! The unorganized Borough went Democratic in 2020.

  • Massachusetts is automatically excepted from this market because Trump did not win any of its counties in 2020. (sorry Massachusetts)

Beware: towns in Vermont, Massachusetts, etc. are NOT counties, only parts of counties!

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