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Resolves YES if Nikki Haley wins any county won by Trump in 2020 in any state’s March 5 primary.
Details:
This market applies to any state holding a caucus or primary for the Republican presidential nomination on March 5.
A county “won by Haley” is one that casts a plurality or majority of its votes for Nikki Haley.
A county “won by Trump” is one that casted a plurality or majority of its votes for Donald Trump in the 2020 general election (NOT the 2020 primaries).
Resolves NO if Nikki Haley does not win any counties on March 5.
Resolves NO if Nikki Haley wins some number of counties on March 5, but none of them were won by Trump in 2020’s general election.
The market will remain active if Nikki Haley drops out prior to all polls closing on March 5.
For the purposes of this market, county-equivalents including independent Virginia cities and Alaskan boroughs qualify as “counties”. Extra important: The Unorganized Borough counts as one county, not the census areas within it! The unorganized Borough went Democratic in 2020.
Massachusetts is automatically excepted from this market because Trump did not win any of its counties in 2020. (sorry Massachusetts)
Beware: towns in Vermont, Massachusetts, etc. are NOT counties, only parts of counties!
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I will be waiting to resolve this market (and the related one) until there is more data from Alaska, California, and Utah.
I will resolve this market YES if the county data show Nikki Haley winning Davis County, Utah (or any other counties in those three states). Otherwise, it does not appear Haley has won any Trump counties in the mostly reported states.
@nikki do u mean the Wikipedia page? I think it shows the county as being Dem win
but obviously it is just wrong.
Anyway, I'm just betting on regression to the mean.
Now I have made a very stupid move. I thought the 0-2 option in the related market was 1-2 and tried to arb this market with that one💀
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I will be waiting to resolve this market (and the related one) until there is more data from Alaska, California, and Utah.
I will resolve this market YES if the county data show Nikki Haley winning Davis County, Utah (or any other counties in those three states). Otherwise, it does not appear Haley has won any Trump counties in the mostly reported states.
@houstonEuler you can still be saved if one of the Alaskan boroughs goes your way (although only some count)
@jim And then Alaska ends up being the most Trumpy state in the whole primary. I was not expecting that.
@thepurplebull is the unorganized borough a county, or do the census areas count as a county equivalent
@thepurplebull Republican Alaska boroughs will hopefully not be an issue, but if results are only available by house district and it isn't obvious who won, things may have to be on hold until there is precinct/borough data