Will the Russian cancer vaccine work?
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27%
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https://ground.news/article/russia-to-launch-free-cancer-vaccine-in-2025

  • Russia claims to have developed an mRNA-based vaccine to treat cancer, which will be available for free to patients from early 2025, according to the state-run news agency TASS.

  • Andrey Kaprin, General Director of the Radiology Medical Research Center of the Russian Ministry of Health, confirmed the vaccine's availability in a statement to Radio Rossiya on December 15.

  • The cancer vaccine's pre-clinical trials reportedly showed that it suppresses tumour development and potential metastases, as stated by Alexander Gintsburg.

  • The vaccine was developed by several teams of scientists, including the Gamaleya National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology, Hertsen Moscow Oncology Research Institute, and Blokhin Cancer Research Center, according to Health Minister Mikhail Murashko.

This market will resolve YES if the body of evidence indicates that the vaccine is effective at preventing cancer. Things that would help, but are not necessary or sufficient, include:

  • Western countries adopting the vaccine

  • Peer-reviewed studies internationally replicate the vaccine mechanism

This market will resolve NO if this does not happen by the close of this market.

  • Update 2024-19-12 (PST): The effectiveness of the vaccine will be judged holistically and qualitatively rather than based on a specific percentage threshold for reduced cancer incidence. (AI summary of creator comment)

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bought Ṁ50 NO

"What is the cancer? What is the antigen? Where is the clinical trial data? These are all unanswered questions, and we haven't seen any of this data to make a proper assessment of it."

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-cancer-vaccine-scientists-very-skeptical-2002882

I share their skepticism

effective at preventing cancer.

Could you please clarify at what % reduced incidence this counts? 25%? 50?

@Siebe No. It depends on the studies. I will be making this judgment holistically and qualitatively and if I am so egregiously wrong, there are always the mods to appeal to.

@tedks you could at least narrow down the range.. are we talking about almost fully preventing all cancers, or is a 10% reduction in a specific type of cancer enough?

bought Ṁ150 YES

does something like brazil adopting it work? think they used the sputnik covid vaccine

@PaulHan Necessary but not sufficient.

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