Will the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement be ratified by the end of 2026?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ5302027
20%
chance
67
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A trade deal between the EU and Mercosur (Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, & Uruguay) under negotiation for ~25 years and rejected in 2019 has been agreed. Will the deal, or something substantially similar, be ratified by all parties (not necessarily entered into force) by the end of 2026?
https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-mercosur-set-finalise-contentious-trade-deal-2024-12-06/
https://www.dw.com/en/eu-delays-signing-mercosur-free-trade-deal-again/a-75237389
ITA ratification will resolve YES.
Previous (2025) market: https://manifold.markets/table8473/will-the-eumercosur-free-trade-agre
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