A trade deal between the EU and Mercosur (Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, & Uruguay) under negotiation for ~25 years and rejected in 2019 has been agreed. Will the deal, or something substantially similar, be ratified by all parties (not necessarily entered into force) by the end of 2026?
https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-mercosur-set-finalise-contentious-trade-deal-2024-12-06/
https://www.dw.com/en/eu-delays-signing-mercosur-free-trade-deal-again/a-75237389
ITA ratification will resolve YES.
Previous (2025) market: https://manifold.markets/table8473/will-the-eumercosur-free-trade-agre
Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the market will resolve YES if and only if:
All Mercosur parties ratify (Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, & Uruguay)
Full ratification by the EU (not provisional application)
Provisional application by the EU will not count as ratification for resolution purposes.
1,000People are also trading
Another edge case arises!
I'm inclined to resolve yes if approved provisionally and not subsequently annulled before the end of the year but happy to hear feedback otherwise.
@table8473 Hi, no, this is not an edge case. Provisional application isn't ratification. It's an alternative route being considered precisely because the ITA looks unlikely to be ratified any time soon. It would be an interesting market to bet on whether provisional application will happen, but that should be a new, different market.
Also - you mentioned Bolivia in the text. Is it one of the parties for the purpose of this market i.e. does Bolivia need to ratify the ITA in 2026 for a YES resolution? Thanks.
Edit: also, if you do decide to use provisional application as the criteria for the EU side (please don't!), would you still need all five Mercosur countries to ratify the deal, for a YES? The market description does refer to "all parties", not just the EU.
@table8473 Hi, can you confirm please that Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, & Uruguay all need to ratify in 2026, for a YES? The market refers to ratification by "all parties", so I think it should include Bolivia, but I acknowledge that Bolivia is a more complicated case than the others.
Have you decided what to do about provisional application by the EU? The Commission itself is clear that this is different to ratification, but regardless of my personal opinion the important thing for this market is that we collectively know what we're trading on. (The Commission said in their recent statement, “‘Provisional application' is, by its nature – provisional. It is right there in the name. In line with the EU Treaties, the Agreement can only be fully concluded once the European Parliament has given its consent.”)
Thank you to @adonisds for creating the other market.
@SacredChicken hi, sorry yes I've taken feedback into account and will resolve yes IFF all parties ratify, including full application in the EU and approval by all Mercosur nations.
Free tade baby!
Sorry for coming from the UK, our country is embarrassing. I'll trade with whoever regardless of our political establishment.