Will the EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement be applied in 2026, even if provisionally?

Question

It resolves positively if, according to credible media, the European Union - Mercosur/Mercosul free trade agreement goes into effect before 2027.

This is motivated by news such as this: https://www.dw.com/en/eu-to-provisionally-implement-controversial-mercosur-deal/a-76148877

I will not bet in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 89% chance (11 traders, as of Mar 18, 2026).