A trade deal between the EU and Mercosur (Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, & Uruguay) under negotiation for ~25 years and rejected in 2019 has been agreed. Will the deal, or something substantially similar, be ratified by all parties (not necessarily entered into force) by the end of 2025?
https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-mercosur-set-finalise-contentious-trade-deal-2024-12-06/
Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering whether the Interim Trade Agreement (ITA) alone would be sufficient for YES resolution, or if the full EMPA (EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement) ratification is required.
Creator's instinct: ITA ratification is enough (as it covers the trade portions)
However, creator is willing to require full EMPA if most traders prefer
Final criteria will depend on trader feedback
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@SacredChicken I'd say that any signing is not enough. but if something will be ratified that's a question of how permanent it is
@SacredChicken Sorry for taking so long to reply. My instinct is the ITA is enough as it covers the trade portions of the agreement that the market is fundamentally about, but due to the uncertainty I am also willing to require full EMPA if most traders prefer.
@table8473 Even though I have now bet NO, I think full ratification of the ITA would be a fair enough criterion to resolve on, because that's the actual "free trade" part of the deal.
With today's decision to defer the EU vote until January, even the ITA is now very unlikely to be ratified in 2025.