
an LLM as capable as GPT-4 will run on a 3090 before March 2024
23
430Ṁ4814resolved Mar 12
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
e.g. Winograde >= 87.5%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ118 | |
2 | Ṁ74 | |
3 | Ṁ45 | |
4 | Ṁ37 | |
5 | Ṁ31 |
People are also trading
an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 3090 by March 2025
33% chance
an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 4090 by March 2025
35% chance
China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025
89% chance
Will it be possible to run an LLM of GPT-4 (or higher) capability on a portable device by 2027?
47% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?
12% chance
Size of smallest open-source LLM marching GPT 3.5's performance in 2025? (GB)
4.40
Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?
82% chance
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
57% chance
Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
83% chance
Sort by:
predictedNO
the initial question was specifically about winogrande, but MMLU would also be acceptable. fits on a single 3090. quantization could be allowed if quantized performance is comparable, but that might be annoying to evaluate
Winograde? Do you mean the Winogrande benchmark? Like specifically this one? (Any requirement for the LLM in question to be open?)
https://huggingface.co/spaces/HuggingFaceH4/open_llm_leaderboard
People are also trading
Related questions
an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 3090 by March 2025
33% chance
an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 4090 by March 2025
35% chance
China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025
89% chance
Will it be possible to run an LLM of GPT-4 (or higher) capability on a portable device by 2027?
47% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?
12% chance
Size of smallest open-source LLM marching GPT 3.5's performance in 2025? (GB)
4.40
Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?
82% chance
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
57% chance
Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
83% chance