an LLM as capable as GPT-4 will run on a 3090 before March 2024

Sylvie

closes 2024

53%

chance

ALL

e.g. Winograde >= 87.5%

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Vincent Luczkow

By 'run' do you mean 'fits on '?

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Sylvie

an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 3090 by March 202557%

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an LLM as capable as GPT-4 will run on a 3090 before Sept 14th9%

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Will a LLM considerably more powerful than GPT-4 come out in 2023?28%

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There will be an open source LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 202572%

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Will any LLM have roughly GPT-3-level losses with a context window of at least 50,000 tokens before April of 2024?36%

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Will an an LLM be able to pass something equivalent to Yann LeCun's 7-gear test by the end of 2024?65%

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Distributed LLM by 202431%

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There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 202717%

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Will a LLM trained with FP4 have competitive performance in 2 years time?23%

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Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?57%

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Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?32%

Peter Wildeford

Will I (Peter Wildeford) think that there is an open source LLM as good as GPT3.5 by EOY 2023?75%

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Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?41%

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Will LLM Detection Get Better By The End of 2023?47%

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Will an LLM be able to match the ground truth >85% of the time when performing PII detection by 2024 end?80%

Amaryllis

A pure binary LLM will exist by end of 202486%

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Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2025?20%

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Will LLMs' non-language capabilities be used commercially by the end of 2023?83%

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Related markets

Sylvie

an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 3090 by March 202557%

Sylvie

an LLM as capable as GPT-4 will run on a 3090 before Sept 14th9%

Bionic

Will a LLM considerably more powerful than GPT-4 come out in 2023?28%

Nathan Young

There will be an open source LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 202572%

Nathan Young

China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 202545%

Isaac

Will any LLM have roughly GPT-3-level losses with a context window of at least 50,000 tokens before April of 2024?36%

Caleb Withers

Will an an LLM be able to pass something equivalent to Yann LeCun's 7-gear test by the end of 2024?65%

Gigacasting

Distributed LLM by 202431%

Nathan Young

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 202717%

typed

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have competitive performance in 2 years time?23%

Nathan Young

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?57%

Yaakov Saxon

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?32%

Peter Wildeford

Will I (Peter Wildeford) think that there is an open source LLM as good as GPT3.5 by EOY 2023?75%

Joe Reeve

Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?41%

Patrick Delaney

Will LLM Detection Get Better By The End of 2023?47%

firstuserhere

Will an LLM be able to match the ground truth >85% of the time when performing PII detection by 2024 end?80%

Amaryllis

A pure binary LLM will exist by end of 202486%

Lovre

Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2025?20%

Finn Hambly

Will LLMs' non-language capabilities be used commercially by the end of 2023?83%

Gigacasting

Will OpenAI have the best LLM in 2024?70%