This market is about Sun, a straight 27 year-old Chinese American man living in Seoul, South Korea. See "About Sun" below.

He appeared in this YouTube video, in which he discusses his thoughts on dating (among other things): https://youtu.be/Mm_NmYdcb9I

-- Real-money betting market information --

There is a corresponding real money-market on this question among Sun's friends, with identical rules below. As of 10/17/2026, that market is currently trading at

• 25% -- $59 USD on Yes vs. $177 on No

-- About Sun --

• Sun is a straight 27-year old Chinese American man.

• Height: 5'9" (175 cm)

• Weight: 162 lb (73.6 kg)

• Bio and job

  • Born and raised in the United States.

  • Attended university in the US for computer science (bachelor's + Master's).

  • Worked at Meta as a software engineer for 4 years.

  • Moved to Seoul 2 years ago.

  • Worked at Seoul National University for 1.5 years as an AI researcher.

  • Currently working as an independent researcher in Seoul.

• Dating history

  • Only 1 relationship, in high school, lasting 2 months.

  • During 2 years in Korea so far, has been on 7 dates with 4 different women.

    • Met them via introduction by mutual friends (2), was approached at a bar (1), and via dating app (1).

  • Dating app performance

    • Went on 1 date after spending 1 month on Coffee Meets Bagel.

    • No dates from other dating apps (Bumble, Hinge, Tinder), after ~2 weeks of effort.

    • Has quit dating apps.

• Dating effort

  • Sun is currently open to dating but not making active efforts.

  • Not using dating apps, not going to dating events, not asking out strangers in public.

• Language

  • Sun is a native English speaker

  • He is currently taking Korean classes (level 3) and can have basic conversations in Korean, but is not comfortable dating in Korean.

  • He will probably never be comfortable having a long-term relationship in Korean only, and this has so far been a significant barrier in the Seoul dating market.

• Hobbies

  • Running - member of a university running club, currently preparing for a marathon.

  • Going to art galleries with friends.

• Social circles

  • Meets about 10 new women per month (at networking events, running club, Korean class, etc.).

  • Has 20-30 female friends in Seoul, 5-10 male friends.

  • Has mostly Korean friends, with a few foreigner friends.

• Type

  • Sun is primarily attracted to East Asians (Korean, Chinese, Japanese).

• Religion

  • Agnostic atheist

• Mental health

  • Diagnosed with ADHD.

  • Recently diagnosed with bipolar disorder and starting medication.

  • Has been seeing a therapist in Seoul for 1.5 years. Previously saw 3 therapists in the US at different points in time.

• MBTI

  • Originally INTJ.

  • But now sometimes tests as ENTJ/ENTP after moving to Korea.

• OCEAN personality: https://bigfive-test.com/result/6a8dccd4690f8f936124da91

  • 93/100 Openness to experience

  • 79/100 Conscientiousness

  • 76/100 Extraversion

  • 92/100 Agreeableness

  • 66/100 Neuroticism

-- AI opinion --

"What is the probability that Sun will enter a relationship?"

• Assuming Sun stays in Seoul (current plan)

  • 10% in 1 year

  • 20% in 2 years

  • 40-45% in 5 years

• If Sun moves to a US city with a high Asian population,

  • 15-20% in 1 year

  • 30-35% in 2 years

  • 55-60% in 5 years

-- Rules --

"Getting a girlfriend" is defined as:

• Sun considers a partner to be his "girlfriend".

• That partner considers Sun to be their "boyfriend".

If Sun gets a girlfriend, this market will immediately resolve as Yes. Note that even if a relationship begins but breaks up before October 11, 2027, this market still resolves as Yes.

Sun himself will not bet in this market. Sun will not try to get or avoid a girlfriend for the express purpose of manipulating this market. Sun will not instruct a partner to lie to affect the resolution of this market.

Feel free to ask Sun any questions in the comments about himself or his dating life.

Rules written on 10/11/2026.

Edit on 10/13/2026: Just to clarify, this is not a bet that Sun is trying to "win". Sun does not necessarily want a girlfriend; he is NOT hoping that the answer to this question is Yes. Sun is open to dating but not actively looking right now. This prediction market is partially a prediction on "Will Sun change his mind about wanting to date within the next year?".