Description

This market addresses the central question in autonomous vehicle (AV) safety. Waymo is accumulating millions of fully autonomous miles, but experts like Professor Philip Koopman of Carnegie Mellon argue that statistical proof of safety requires billions of miles of data.

The baseline for human drivers in the U.S. is approximately 1.35 fatalities per 100 million miles. This means that over a 2 billion-mile span, human drivers would be expected to cause roughly 27 fatal accidents. This market asks whether Waymo can achieve a safety record that is an order of magnitude better than this human baseline according to Koopman's framework for safety. His framework describes "10 critical mishaps" in 2 billion miles, but "critical mishap" is hard to adjudicate, so I'm using fatalities.

Key Definitions

• "2 Billion Autonomous Miles": Refers to cumulative miles driven by the Waymo fleet in fully autonomous mode on public roads, as officially announced by Waymo or its parent company, Alphabet.

• "Fatality": The death of any person (Waymo occupant, occupant of another vehicle, pedestrian, cyclist, etc.) resulting from a collision involving a Waymo vehicle.

• "At-Fault": The collision is determined to be the fault of the Waymo vehicle by the official, final report from a relevant government authority (e.g., NHTSA, NTSB, or the primary law enforcement agency that investigated the incident).

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, upon reaching 2 billion cumulative, fully autonomous miles, the total number of at-fault fatalities involving Waymo vehicles is three (3) or fewer.

This market will resolve to NO if, upon reaching 2 billion cumulative, fully autonomous miles, the total number of at-fault fatalities involving Waymo vehicles is four (4) or more.

Additional Terms

The closing date for this market is January 1, 2040. If Waymo has not officially announced reaching 2 billion miles by this date, the market will resolve to N/A. Resolution will be based on a preponderance of evidence from reputable news sources and official government reports.