It might be worth clarifying whether 'Trump's term' here is just shorthand for 'by the end of 2028', or whether situations where the Trump presidency is cut short due to unexpected events would result in an earlier resolution of the market.

What is going on? It came just shy of 500 last month and there’s still three years to go. Whatever you think of Tesla they’re not crashing. The market might be but the odds can’t be that high. I’m probably missing something.

@MachiNi I think there is 25% probability that it crashes, and it is also probable it just stagnate without reaching 500.
Also this market, like many others, doesn't have a lot of liquidity so the probability reflect a lot of what the last bettor was thinking. You should not read to much into it.

Anyway I should a put limit orders instead of just buying NO, I was just lazy.

@MachiNi The market could easily go sideways for several years, depending on various things ... and if someone thinks TSLA is overvalued due to P/E, or will have problems from Chinese EV competition, or what have you, it could underperform the market.

@BorisBartlog thanks for the explanation !

What if $TSLA undergoes a share consolidation?

@Lexer if the shares adjust / split so will the target of this market

@StCredZero limit order up

Tesla's market cap is $0.75T. For a share price of $500, Tesla's value would have to nearly double to $1.6T in under four years.

@Lexer TSLA does this regularly. In 2023, it went from $100 in January to $200 in February. In 2024, it went from $200 in August to $400 in December.