Resolution criteria

Tesla stock price must close above $500 on any trading day. Resolution will be determined by checking the closing price on NASDAQ: TSLA or Yahoo Finance TSLA historical data. The market resolves to the earliest month in which this occurs. If the stock never exceeds $500 by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to "It won't, not before 2027."

Background

Tesla stock is currently trading at $449.72, approximately $50 below the $500 threshold. The stock reached an all-time high of $498.83 on December 22, 2025, coming within 1.2% of the target. Tesla reported a second straight annual drop in electric vehicle sales, losing its title as the world's bestselling EV maker, with 2025 deliveries of 1.64 million vehicles down 9% from 2024. Despite these challenges, Tesla's stock finished 2025 with a gain of roughly 11%, as investors hope Musk can deliver on ambitions in robotaxi service and humanoid robots.

Considerations

Analyst forecasts for 2026 diverge significantly, with conservative predictions suggesting a range of $441–$519, while more optimistic estimates forecast Tesla's share price rising to over $1,200. Tesla's next earnings report is scheduled for January 28, 2026, which could be a significant catalyst for price movement.