Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES when Tesla's stock price (TSLA) closes at or above $500 on any trading day. Resolution will be verified using official closing prices from NASDAQ or Yahoo Finance. The market resolves NO if the stock never reaches $500 by the specified end date.
Background
Tesla's stock closed at $449.78 on December 31, 2025, requiring approximately an 11% gain to reach $500. The stock reached an intraday high of $498.83 on December 22, 2025, coming within 0.2% of the target. Tesla reported 418,227 vehicle deliveries in Q4 2025, down 16% year-over-year, and full-year deliveries fell 8.6% to 1.64 million from 1.79 million in 2024.
Considerations
Wall Street consensus 12-month price targets average around $399 per share, implying the stock is overvalued by 12%, though price targets range widely from lows near $120 to highs of $600, with Piper Sandler and Wedbush maintaining $500 and $600 targets respectively. The market increasingly treats Tesla like an AI and autonomy story, with progress on self-driving vehicles and Robotaxi exciting investors despite lackluster vehicle deliveries. Conservative forecasts suggest the asset will trade between $441 and $519 in 2026, while more optimistic platforms anticipate a rally to $1,200 or higher.
Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Tesla never reaches $500 by the end date, this market will resolve to N/A (all trades will be cancelled and mana returned) rather than resolving to a specific answer.
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This may be better as a set market. Right now we wouldn’t be able to resolve Jan and Feb NO until it hits 500, if it was a set you could resolve no as soon as Feb was over
@GraemeStuart how can everything resolve no? I’m pretty sure you have to pick something to resolve yes at the end. Please have a look at the resolution button. Thanks
@Jack1 ok, looks like it's either one answer or N/A. So if Tesla never reaches $500 in 2026, it's N/A.