Resolves YES if the deadline for Bytedance to divest from the US entity TikTok is removed or extended past January 19th 2025, 23:59 ET.
If Trump arranges for TikTok’s deadline to be extended, and the extension technically begins after he takes power on the 19th, this market will still resolve Yes as long as TikTok never becomes unavailable to download for the majority of US residents. This applies even if the deadline technically runs out before the extension takes effect.
Otherwise, this market will resolve No as soon as TikTok the deadline is passed and there are no plans for an extension. If Trump has announced plans for an extension, but TikTok has become unavailable to download for any amount of time for the majority of US residents as the deadline has passed, then this market will resolve No.
1,000
3.00@Gameknight Yes, this market resolves based on the law being delayed and not the enforcement of it.
As stated in the criteria, the only exception to this is if Trump has made and announced clear plans for an extension that begin once he is in power effectively delaying the deadline to divest by making the current law due to take effect redundant.
This market resolved correctly. The legal deadline for TikTok to divest was by Jan 19th (aka essentially no later than Jan 18th 11:59pm ET).
This deadline was not extended in time, and thus TikTok shut down. Trump had made statements that he was looking to work with TikTok and China to help get the app back up, but at the time of the deadline there were no specific plans announced which is when I resolved this market.
@SirSalty I tend to agree that the market was resolved correctly. However, the reasoning in your post here does not seem correct, and I think it's a bit more complicated.
Technically under the resolution criteria above, it depends on whether TikTok became "unavailable to download" as opposed to whether it became unavailable to use.
How I would characterize this situation is that, several hours before the law took effect, TikTok decided to post a political message on their app stating that they had been banned. At the same time, the Biden administration was taking the position they would not enforce the ban and essentially nothing should happen until Trump takes office. If TikTok had shut itself down but Apple and Google did not remove them from the App Store, then I think the interruption in service would be nothing but a political stunt but TikTok -- while Google/Apple continued to make the app available, TikTok just chose to post a political statement on its app rather than allowing users to access their normal content.
However, my understanding is that Apple and Google did briefly make TikTok "unavailable to download." So even though Trump arranged an extension, since the extension came only after Apple and Google had removed TikTok from the App Store, the app briefly became unavailable to download. So under the last sentence of the resolution criteria, I think a "no" resolution was triggered: "If Trump has announced plans for an extension, but TikTok has become unavailable to download for any amount of time for the majority of US residents as the deadline has passed, then this market will resolve No."
@lxgr What are his "clear plans" besides a post on Truth Social and to NBC News saying "most likely" but gave NO details.
@strutheo Maybe you should stick to that then instead of running markets if you can't even resist prematurely resolving them before the day is over and we've seen whether the apps actually stay gone.
@ChadCotty Yes, and if it stays that way I’m absolutely in favor of a NO resolve. I also think the chances of Apple or Google doing anything before midnight are slim, but why resolve before we know that?
Apple, Google remove TikTok from stores as app halts service in US
Published Sat, Jan 18 2025 11:00 PM EST
Updated 3 Min Ago
The Apple App Store and the Google Play store’s removal of TikTok means people in the U.S. can no longer download the popular short-form video app on their devices. TikTok also shut down the service.
