Market Context
Donald Trump announced in early 2025 that they would take control of Gaza for a reconstruction and disarmament effort meant to generate economic opportunities and bring stability to the strip. In September, Trump unveiled the Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan with similar aims, centered on a Board of Peace chaired by U.S. President.
In November, the US circulated a UN Security Council resolution granting broad authority over Gaza to this POTUS chaired Board of Pace. The draft included powers in economic development, governance, and security enforcement under Chapter VII. Russia circulated an alternative draft that removed the Board of Peace entirely.
On November 17th the US draft was approved by the UN Security Council as UN SC Resolution 2803 (2025) with 13 votes in favour, 0 against, and abstentions from China and Russia.
Market purpose
While the powers granted by the UN SC resolution 2803 can be objectively reviewed, whether they imply “giving control to the US” is a more subjective call.
I have my opinion about to which extent relevant stakeholders believe UN SC granted US control over Gaza, but I want to pulse how far my perception is from the perception of Manifold community.
Options
Each option will resolve YES, NO, or 50%. I paste here, for reference, their reactions to UN SC 2803.
Each option should be read as an independent market. For example: “Does Trump believe the UN SC reolution 2803 gave USA control over Gaza?”, and so on.
Donald Trump, POTUS
"Congratulations to the World on the incredible Vote of the United Nations Security Council, just moments ago, acknowledging and endorsing the BOARD OF PEACE, which will be chaired by me, and include the most powerful and respected Leaders throughout the World." ...
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/115567457865630938
Vassily Nebenzya, Russia representative at the UN
“the council is giving its blessing to a US initiative based on Washington’s promises giving complete control over the Gaza strip to the Board of Peace”
“There is no cause for celebration. Today is a sorrowful day for the security council”
“The implementation of President Trump’s plan falls squarely on the shoulders of its authors”
“Regrettably, we’ve already had the unfortunate experience of seeing solutions to the Israeli Palestinian conflict pushed through by the United States, bringing about the opposite result of what was intended. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.”
Russia speech during UN Security Council meeting starts at 1h 29’: https://www.youtube.com/live/a0YLLx_uZNU?si=4Y730qReuZDXb8af&t=5358
Fu Cong, China representative at the UN
“The draft resolution is .. deeply worrisome”
“The penholder requests the council to authorize the establishment of a Border of Peace and International Stabilization Force which will play a key role in a postwar governance in Gaza.”
“The draft resolution outlines postwar governance arrangements for Gaza. But it seems Palestine is barely visible in it.”
“The draft resolution doesn’t ensure effective participation of the UN and its Security Council. The draft resolution requests the council to authorize the BoP to assume full responsibility for the civil and secure arrangements in Gaza. It stipulates no oversight or review mechanism beyond the annual written reports.”
China speech during UN Security Council meeting starts at 1h 29’:
https://www.youtube.com/live/a0YLLx_uZNU?si=XyCcV-K8_65tgvPx&t=5780
Hamas
I couldn’t find a direct statement, but press articles such as this one by The Guardian summarize the response by their spokespersons
Netanyahu, Israel PM
“The United Nations Security Council fully endorses President Trump‘s 20 Point Plan, and the appointment of the Board of Peace to be led by President Trump. We believe that President Trump‘s plan will lead to peace and prosperity”
PM Netanyahu's Statement on the UN Security Council's Resolution on President Trump's Gaza Plan
Manifold
Will the USA be given control of the Gaza Strip by the end of 2025?
Resolution
Criteria
This market resolves according to whatever the traders think at close.
- all options at > 60% will resolve YES
- all options between 40 and 60% will resolve 50%
- all options at < 40% will resolve NO
Closure date
This market will be closed on November 30th. The market closure date will not be changed.
Market creator participation
I will only place one small bet at each option in the first seconds after market creation. I will no longer bet in the market.
1,000