I started Manifold back in November, and became a top 100 creator on my 40th day. Recently I just breached the top 20 on my 100th day. Now that I'm finally at the endgame, will I be able to overtake all 20 of the current leaderboard creators by the end of the year, despite having way less mana and history? Tune in to find out!
EDIT: Top 3 on 180th day!
EDIT: #2 on 330th day!
See: /strutheo/how-many-top-creators-will-i-slay-b
Link: https://manifold.markets/leaderboards
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The market will be resolved based on the profile numbers shown on individual creator profiles, not the numbers shown on the leaderboard page.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will be resolved based on the leaderboard page rankings, not individual profile numbers, even if there are discrepancies between the two.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will be resolved based on the leaderboard rankings, not individual profile numbers, as stated in 'oh well doesnt change much we were always using leaderboard for this market even when they kept changing it'
1,000
3.00Just today alone, @JimmyChipwood has placed 116 bets and @BillyHersch has placed 142 bets on @BTE markets, each wager being exactly 1M and occurring within seconds of each other.
Their entire trade histories demonstrate activity that is clearly not organic. The betting patterns are highly unusual—they have virtually exclusively bet on @BTE markets and always with the same amount of 1M, as has @algorithmovigilance .
I do not believe that they are merely @datachef's friends, contrary to his claims. I am highly confident that @BTE, @datachef, @algorithmovigilance, @JimmyChipwood, and @BillyHersch are all one and the same entity.
Beyond these highly suggestive user activity patterns, there are additional indications pointing to a coordinated effort to manipulate the platform and this market, including transferred mana and a peculiar interest in certain niche Chinese markets. Manifold doesn't have many rules, but the few they do have explicitly prohibit what's been occurring here.
(from https://manifold.markets/market/will-trump-visit-xi-jinping-in-zhon)
@PlasmaBallin I suggest taking those profits and then riding it back the other way. Much more to be made betting BTE.
@datachef When I bet YES on this market earlier today, it was at below 50%.
Also, there are apparently some fake accounts trying to manipulate this by betting on BTE markets, so I feel it's more honorable to oppose their efforts.
@strutheo That is actually incorrect. The profiles tell the true story and unless your profile shows a higher number than BTE's profile you aren't at the top of anything. More like 4K to go. Good luck.
@strutheo Is there a rule against recruiting friends to manifold? i feel like they should be happy to have every DAU and not punish them, but they did ban their top market maker so idk....
@snazzlePop why do you think I am BTE? I am just betting on the most uncalibrated markets and he has lots. So I discovered this market. There are clearly folks betting on this market who are manipulating the counts. They say it in the comments below. You are a hypocrite.
@snazzlePop and also probably @strutheo but whatever. Zero chance your traders are legit rising as fast as they are while the DAUs steadily decrease month by month. Zero.
@strutheo Dude I am obviously here for the fun too. WTF are you talking about?? As was BTE I am sure. You are the only one butt hurt or making accusations that they are being wronged and trying to ruin the good fun for others, strange for someone who is supposedly so chill.
@strutheo I just pointed out the discrepancy in the numbers on the profiles. I don't know why you are upset about that. Sorry you won't be the slayer you thought you were.