Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (not a bank)
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What exactly counts as being nationalized, 100% ownership, or is a majority ownership enough? Does it matter if it's voluntary or not? Afaik last company that qualified was General Motors at 60%

@SamuelHvidager might need to do a manifold poll at the time, but i think anything over 50%? again, i'll defer to the experts

bought Ṁ30 YES

If a publicly traded bank fails, and substantially all of the bank's assets are transferred by the FDIC to a new FDIC-owned bank, would that make this resolve YES? (e.g. the Signature Bank failure last year)

@loops Oh interesting i dont think it is what i intended, and ill hve to look into it. so youre saying people would say we've been nationalizing banks for years ? any experts can weigh in?

@strutheo In the typical FDIC case the FDIC finds a buyer for the failed bank's assets immediately, there's no period where the bank operates normally under government ownership, so that seems reasonable to exclude. But during the 2008 financial crisis some public firms, notably FNMA/FHLMC (which had always been "government-sponsored" even when NYSE-listed) but also arguably AIG, were taken over by the Treasury and/or the Federal Reserve and then continued more or less normal operations, which I think should meet the definition.

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thought this would be way lower, when is the last one?

opened a Ṁ20 YES at 33% order

@strutheo This could be one of those questions where the past is weaker than usual predictor of future. OTOH fewer “natural monopolies” like electricity anymore OTOH arguably some newer industries are essentially public utilities such as internet access. Also last 40 years of increasing privatization in US may be just pendulum swing within the 250 years since beginning of Industrial Revolution. Also maybe there will be public will to nationalize AI if it really is going to change the world soon — especially if it really does turn into Godzilla Clippy and hog resources for its own ends.

@ClubmasterTransparent there's a Clippy react in Teams and it's quite divisive lol

@shankypanky For general readership “Godzilla Clippy” gets the idea across a little snappier than “instrumental convergence”

bought Ṁ50 YES

@strutheo FNMA and FHLMC in 2008?

@lexande from what i am reading, each time this happens to a bank it is intended to be temporary, so i dont know if i would count that as nationalization cc @loops

> As of 2022, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain under conservatorship, and after more than repaying their Treasury loans are building capital reserves for an expected eventual exit.

@strutheo In the long run we're all dead, a "temporary" nationalization (15 years and counting...) is still a nationalization.

@lexande then i will probably omit banks or make another just for banks since that seems like a special case

@strutheo FNMA and FHLMC (and AIG) weren't banks! And taking them over was a discretionary political decision at the time, not the execution of a pre-existing agreement like FDIC takeovers of failed banks.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Does the company need to be public at market creation, or just at some point before it is nationalized? What if a company was public, goes private, and then is nationalized?

@Gabrielle hmmm... ask me then . depends if going private is a part of it

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