🌼What will happen in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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resolved Jun 11
February starts
March starts
April starts
May starts
Resolved
YES
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/
Resolved
YES
at least one xkcd comic where there are no stick figures at all
Resolved
YES
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Resolved
YES
In Donald Trump New York criminal trial, trial has commenced before May 31, 2024 at 11:59:59 PM EDT (jury selection commences)
Resolved
YES
At least five XKCD comics where there are no stick figures at all
Resolved
YES
It's the hottest May on record (based on global average temperature)
Resolved
YES
Three or more official Star Wars releases/announcements on May the 4th
Resolved
YES
Joe Biden is alive for the entire month
Resolved
YES
Maria Branyas, Tomiko Itooka, and John Tinniswood are all alive during the entire month
Resolved
YES
An open Manifold market about the Eurovision Song Contest has 100+ Traders
Resolved
YES
Bryan Johnson is alive for the entire month
Resolved
YES
The top-listed head of government of any UN country listed on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_heads_of_state_and_government) changes
Resolved
YES
Donald Trump held in contempt of court, and sanctioned with fines or imprisonment
Resolved
YES
Vote to vacate the chair in the House, but Mike Johnson saved by Democratic votes
Resolved
YES
at least 5 users have spice
Resolved
YES
The Myanmar resistance forces will gain territory on the map on this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_civil_war_(2021%E2%80%93present)
Resolved
YES
nvidia is above $888.00 at end of month
Resolved
N/A
The sun shines somewhere

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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The poll about whether the Turing Test was passed has closed, and the consensus was YES.

I agree, and it turns out my opinion was decisive. It is not clear to me how a respondent to the poll could vote otherwise, as the test was blown away even by the now-obsolete open source LLM that existed at the time of production. It passed a stronger version of the test than Turing proposed and not even one of the humans was correct. None of the NO voters provided any arguments to support their positions.

It's surprising to me that nobody has been talking about what happened; people like Yudkowsky are strangely silent about it on X. I do believe The Circle should be considered the canonical time when humans created a machine that passed the Turing Test.

@SteveSokolowski I went in expecting to vote NO and ended up voting YES, based largely on your argument.

That said... how many contestants were there? That seems like a potentially notable difference from the classic Turing Test making things easier on the AI. Like, if there had been 500 humans and 1 AI, it obviously wouldn't be that impressive that they failed to find the needle in a haystack.

I didn't know this until just now, but looking into it, it seems like the AI had some human assistance. I think that probably invalidates it as a Turing Test win, actually. https://www.reddit.com/r/TheCircleTV/s/8IIfxErBgD https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/the-circle-season-6-ai-bot-max-interview

Early on in the season, Max refuses to join an all-male alliance out of respect for the women in the competition. “We would push him on that as a strategy, but he felt like it was discriminating against female players and its answer was always like, ‘This isn’t a good way to play the game.’ ”

“Max would use words like rad, or it was just very flat,” O’Driscoll adds. That’s when the team would step in to remind Max about his character traits and his purpose in the game. “We learned that that certain words really helped to form the character, like reminding him that ‘You’re 26 and you’re Gen Z.’ Then Max would link in and use words that were more fitting.”

dice = 7

This really comes down to whether a fashion statement counts as a statement. Definitely there were political fashion statements.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/eurovision/video-3187369/Video-Eurovision-contestants-boldly-displayed-pro-Palestinian-messages.html

@ClubmasterTransparent I didn't intend it that way, but I can see how others would.

yes been thinking about this one and ill look for as many images as i can find. maybe resolve it 50% since thats the new NA if we're unsure lol

@strutheo I’m fine with that. This is not the Manifold hill I want to take my do or die stand on — couple respected friends’ opinion on whether flashing fancy nail do is sticking it to the Man!

This and mistral resolve NO.

Not wanting this to go down to the wire, we have Evergreen with a pro-divestment MOU commitment (not just a future vote like Brown), we have Union Seminary committing to permanent divestment with its independent endowment, and Sacramento State with its $4.5 million divestment plan. This just says "some form of" and is thus softer than Matty's divestment market.

@Panfilo Sacramento state hasn't announced anything saying that. Some news reports suggested it would, but Sacramento Bee suggests not. Unclear whether they intend to divest, but there's been no announcement: https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article288540818.html

Evergreen MOU is just that it will look into the issue and, regardless, that was issued in April, not May.

Union is more of a judgment call: it never actually mentions any divestments, but just says it will take a closer look at companies that are profiting from the war. Unclear if this is going to mean any actual divestment.

@Mactuary I could direct you to the other market where the Evergreen and Union situations were discussed in depth, but the Sacramento Bee article is news to me. I'll read up on it. Union Seminary is unambiguous though. They are doing exactly what the Columbia protestors wanted, and nitpicking over vocabulary would be against the spirit of the question, especially with "some kind of" language.

@Panfilo Union I could buy, as I said. Sacramento State I see now announcement from them. Evergreen I don't think we need to debate because it happened in April.

@Mactuary The announcement was in May for Evergreen, wasn't it?

@Mactuary And I think there's a difference between divestment and "looking into it" because I think the universities are basically saying No while trying to get the encampments to end

@Mactuary If memory serves (and I was following this very closely at the start of the month), the agreement was posted/announced the next day. The document has April 30th on it because that evening was when they signed it.

@Panfilo Doesn't look like the internet archive saved anything around that time. Is there another way to confirm?

And also they haven't announced any divestment or plans to divest. They announced the formation of a committee

@Mactuary This was addressed in Matty's market, but the phrases "and acted upon" and "implementation of the divestment policy" indicate "plans to divest" to me. Given the "any form of" phrasing is softer than Matty's standards, this fits just fine.

@Panfilo They're telling the students they're going to look into it and form committees so the encampments end.

"Any form of" covers "we're going to divest from companies doing business in Israel" even if they haven't done anything yet. It doesn't cover "we'll meet with you" which is intended to shut them up

@strutheo @Panfilo Putting aside Evergreen, Sacramento State has clearly not announced anything per the Sacramento Bee (did not agree to any divestment) and no mention of anything on their website. Any reason this can't resolve No?

Only 3 left!

The Myanmar resistance forces will gain territory on the map on this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_civil_war_(2021%E2%80%93present)
bought Ṁ430 The Myanmar resistan... YES

Resolves YES.

Comparing the map as of the end of April to the current map, we can see that the grey (Kachin Independence Army, part of the resistance forces) have gained considerable territory from the peach (representing "Tatmadaw and allies", part of the junta forces), for example.

anyone else want to make the poll , im broke lol

@strutheo oh i guess this resolves NO if i choose not to haha

@strutheo I mean I'm happy to make the poll but does it even count if someone other than you makes it?

Alternatively I could make the poll for the fun of it and then you can just resolve the answer NO regardless lol

true lol.. nvmd

@strutheo I guess arguably causing someone else to make a poll technically counts as creating a poll... you directly caused it to be created.

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