🌼What will happen in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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10K
Jun 1
February starts
Feb 1
March starts
Mar 1
April starts
Apr 1
May starts
May 1
99%
Vote to vacate the chair in the House, but Mike Johnson saved by Democratic votes
98.9%
The top-listed head of government of any UN country listed on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_heads_of_state_and_government) changes
98.6%
Bryan Johnson is alive for the entire month
98.5%
Donald Trump held in contempt of court, and sanctioned with fines or imprisonment
98.4%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
98.3%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
97%
Joe Biden is alive for the entire month
90%
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
84%
An American union with over 1000 members is on strike for any amount of time
80%
At least five XKCD comics where there are no stick figures at all
78%
It's the hottest May on record (based on global average temperature)
75%
This market will have fewer Traders than any of its predecessors at the end of May
75%
Manchester City win the FA Cup Final
74%
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/
74%
A high school or college commencement speaker is protested by significant group of graduates, per reliable reporting
70%
A trailer for House of the Dragon season 2 releases
70%
Joe Biden leaves the United States for any amount of time
68%
The Myanmar resistance forces will gain territory on the map on this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_civil_war_(2021%E2%80%93present)
67%
Eurovision Song Contest includes an unscripted/unapproved political statement
62%
Starship Launch

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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bought Ṁ50 Answer #434fc3ac1aa9 YES

If one more person trades on this it'll reach 100 (so grab your little bit of free mana)

/TenShino/will-a-palestinian-flag-be-visible

bought Ṁ50 Answer #0072f6fe7cef NO

According to the linked market, Tumbles doesn't have any loans due until July.

opened a Ṁ69,696 Answer #0072f6fe7cef NO at 2% order

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Want to give me one due this month?

@strutheo resolves NO, mystik dan was BAY

@strutheo resolves NO, Mystik Dan first letter M

@strutheo resolves NO

The top-listed head of government of any UN country listed on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_heads_of_state_and_government) changes
bought Ṁ289 The top-listed head ... YES

Resolves YES (Solomon Islands)

Does this count? https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/google-cuts-hundreds-of-core-workers-moves-jobs-to-india-mexico.html

As far as I can tell, the layoffs were announced internally last week, but didn't become public knowledge until May 1st. They still haven't been publicly announced, though, so I guess we need to wait for that.

yea will wait more

peloton just laid off 15%, might count that too

@strutheo Makes sense. I heard about Peloton too, but I wasn't sure if they count as a tech company.

@strutheo This occurred in April, so it should resolve NO or N/A.

@Athena can a mod NA please @Joshua

@strutheo Out of curiosity, are MC market creators not able to N/A responses that they didn’t create?

@Athena i can normally but they just changed it so you cant NA in some cases (if it makes someones balance negative, etc)

bought Ṁ3 At least five XKCD c... NO

@Athena Wasn't that only a beta? It wasn't counted as having released in the April market

Is at 5%. Does it have to go down to 4% in order to ***goes*** above 4%?
Mot sure I follow "as indicated by Ammon Lam's market on this topic" is that https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-there-be-over-20000mana-of-4-n
Below 4% is not the opposite of above 4%.

To be clear, we are not distinguishing between colleges and universities. Sarah Lawrence would count once, NYU would count once.

Are we treating "spice" as a synonym for "prize points", given that it was a code-name for that?

@strutheo I think this resolves NO?

The top-listed head of government of any UN country listed on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_heads_of_state_and_government) changes

An edit was made to the page on May 1 to add Michel Patrick Boisvert as Prime Minister of Haiti, but he was appointed on April 30, so this shouldn't cause the answer to resolve. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/haitian-council-names-new-prime-minister-hopes-quelling-stifling-viole-rcna150076

bought Ṁ137 Answer #1df684ba1b1f YES

I'm betting NO on the question regarding Trump being held in contempt of court on the grounds that he was already held in contempt of court on April 30, and will not be again. Given that the judge warned that he would be imprisoned, I doubt that even he will do it again.

@SteveSokolowski Hearing on 4 more violations tomorrow