🌼What will happen in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
50
540
6.2K
Jun 1
February starts
Feb 1
March starts
Mar 1
April starts
Apr 1
99%
In Donald Trump New York criminal trial, trial has commenced before May 31, 2024 at 11:59:59 PM EDT (jury selection commences)
98%
Joe Biden is alive for the entire month
98%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
98%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
98%
Bryan Johnson is alive for the entire month
97%
at least one xkcd comic where there are no stick figures at all
85%
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
82%
large tech company announces layoffs
80%
Joe Biden favored to be elected President, according to Betfair, on May 31, 2024 at 11:59:59pm EDT
79%
A high school or college commencement speaker is protested by significant group of graduates, per reliable reporting
76%
It's the hottest May on record (based on global average temperature)
76%
A trailer for House of the Dragon season 2 releases
75%
Starship Launch
73%
The top-listed head of government of any UN country listed on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_heads_of_state_and_government) changes
68%
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/
66%
Three or more official Star Wars releases/announcements on May the 4th
66%
This market will have fewer Traders than any of its predecessors at the end of May
66%
Eurovision Song Contest includes an unscripted/unapproved political statement
66%
At least three hurricanes or typhoons form anywhere on the planet
59%
An American union with over 1000 members is on strike for any amount of time

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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On May 31, 2024, chris (@strutheo) creates a Manifold poll, lasting for one week, which asks "Has the Manifold pivot been a success?," with answers "YES," "NO," "Just see results," and there is more YES than NO

@SteveSokolowski Is this supposed to resolve after the poll has closed? In which case wouldn't that mean it didn't happen in May? And does the poll not being created (or not meeting the criterion) resolve as NO or N/A?

@Nat yea i will skip poll based answers for these monthly ones , or run the poll earlier

a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/

Are we depending on that site again? I thought we decided it was unreliable.

bought Ṁ1 New Public Health Em... YES

For what it's worth, I'm betting on the Public Health Emergency of International Concern as if it will only resolve YES if the declaration occurs during May, and not that one is declared in April and carries over.

@SteveSokolowski Thanks, I think that should be clear since the title says "new".

Either Donald Trump or Joe Biden ceases to be the presumptive nominee for his respective party

??

@Tik duplicate, see previous comment

Either Donald Trump or Joe Biden ceases to be the presumptive nominee for his respective party

duplicate

Fine, I give up. I don't know why I keep wasting my time and mana on this stuff.

I gave it a second chance after reading your previous comment a while back. There's a reason these markets are emptier than the ones in January and February.

There's a fatal flaw in how Manifold sets up these type of markets. You can't allow users to arbitrarily cancel responses and waste mana. Until the administrators resolve the ability for market creators to burn mana in this manner, I refuse to participate any further.

I urge others to boycott adding responses to these markets until this power imbalance is addressed and mana is refunded.

@SteveSokolowski i explained to you like five times, and you're still doing the same thing lol. i left up most of your answers today and only NAed two!

i thought the mana returned? i am not getting it, so that might be a bug on manifolds side

@SteveSokolowski the reason this market is empty is because its march and this one is for may, you're going so far ahead nobody is looking at them yet

@strutheo cc @Austin @JamesGrugett for the mana bug - when a MC gets NAed steve is not getting his mana back

bought Ṁ200 A white horse wins t... NO

@strutheo Country girls, yeah, gon' do your days (Hey)

Cowboys, yeah, gon' do your days (Hey)

City slicker, yeah, gon' do your days (Hey)

Everybody in the party do your days (Hey)

Put your left foot and pull it out, won't ya (Hey)

Stick your right foot and pull it out, won't ya (Hey)

Ride the horse, ride the horse, ride the horse now (Hey)

Ride the horse, ride the horse, ride the horse now (Hey)

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