@strutheo please define "attack" and "Taiwan" 😊

@JoshuaWilkes how would you define taiwan here?

as for attack - a formal start of an invasion or military conflict,hot war, multiple deaths, attempt to take territory or decimate the armed forces , and/or infrastructure etc

@strutheo You need to decide which if any of the outlying islands to include

@JoshuaWilkes i think ill count all them, certainly kinmen, i dont know enough about the others but i also dont see why they wouldnt count. are they uninhabited?

@strutheo Politely*, I think you need to read about this and decide for yourself. There are lots of differences in terms of political geography between the islands that are important here.

*I very much appreciate that this almost has the opposite effect, but I mean it sincerely.

@JoshuaWilkes alright we're doing 'as judged by manifold' - if its unclear at the time i'll be using a poll to determine if it counts as an attack

@strutheo I can't really complain given my previous comment 🤣, but this doesn't feel like the right approach either. It turns the question from predicting whether there will be an attack to balancing whether there will be an attack, where there might be an attack and whether Manifold would consider that 'Taiwan'.

Sorry for saying this, but you really could just read about the topic you are making a market about.

@JoshuaWilkes no matter how much you read there is going to be a subjective component, if you have an example of a market with good resolution criteria please suggest it

@strutheo you point to a much wider issue: most of the markets don't make proper distinction here (there is also a key difference whether the title uses "attack" or "invade").

I think what I will do is firstly tidy up my own markets (good but not good enough) and then write a general suggested style guide for this genre.

@JoshuaWilkes ok sounds good, id be happy to use it

@strutheo https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/taiwan-china-potential-conflict-sty#or8gobavdls

take a look - this is a 1.0 version. I want to see what people think

thanks~

@strutheo did you see this?

@JoshuaWilkes thanks