Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
7
36
Ṁ91Ṁ170
2027
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Does DPP's non-corporation with China increase the chance of invasion?
Resolution follows the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan
This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.
This question is answered "No" if there is:
no military conflict between the two parties
a limited military conflict without triggering a major war
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? (Yes) → Chinese Annexation of Half of Taiwan by 2050
49% chance
Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
29% chance
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
4% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
17% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2024?
6% chance
Will China launch an attack on Taiwan until the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will China invade Taiwan in the 2024 March-May window?
1% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
29% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
14% chance