Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
7
170Ṁ91
2027
20%
chance

Does DPP's non-corporation with China increase the chance of invasion?



Resolution follows the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan

This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.

This question is answered "No" if there is:

  • no military conflict between the two parties

  • a limited military conflict without triggering a major war

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