Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 89% chance (6 traders, as of Aug 8, 2026).

If Andrew Wilson takes an IQ test publicly will he get 100 or higher?

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2029

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bought Ṁ250 YES

I have no idea who this is, but it's difficult to conceive of someone with an IQ lower than 100.

@jim isn't that literally by definition half of the entire population?

@TheAllMemeingEye No, the norm is 100, but the actual average IQ is much lower than that.

@jim what's the difference between the norm and the average here? Also how do you do the redacted text?

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Will any AI consistently get a perfect score on Maxim Lott's offline IQ test by the end of 2027?

94% chance

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80% chance

If I take an IQ test publicly will I get 115 or higher?

82% chance

If I take an IQ test publicly will I get 125 or higher?

47% chance

Will GPT-4.5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

69% chance

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

93% chance

Will my firstborn have an IQ over 130?

29% chance

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What is Elon Musk's IQ?

141

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129

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