Yeah I'm not betting on this given the high odds he'll lie about it because it's likely not as high as he wants

I’m also not going to factor in if he’s lying

Have I got a bridge I’d like to sell you.

@Ophiuchus ☝️

If his IQ is actually 140 or even above 120 I'm convinced he is larping as an idiot in twitter replies, almost everything he says is incredibly surface level.

@Tater People who are very intelligent in one domain can be very stupid in another, especially when it triggers their tribalistic instincts.

@IsaacKing I'm not really sure how twitter replies is a specific domain of intelligence but I think he has likely been influenced by optimizing his posts to get the best response which leads to looking stupid.

@Tater Why would you value twitter replies over being head engineer at spacex?

@Shai I don't have any strong opinions on his actual iq, I just think he comes off as a very shallow thinker if you only read his twitter, which would be weird if he actually has an IQ of 140.

@Tater Your mistake is thinking that 140 IQ is really smart.

In truth, most of humanity is absolute dumbasses. The average Manifolder is illiterate(can't read market descriptions or articles) and innumerate(don't how to price loans, bets, interest rates, or anything), and people keeping trying to convince me their average is 125 /levifinkelstein/whats-the-average-iq-of-active-mani

Look around: If the average Manifolder is 125, why can't Elon be 140?

@Mira Alright just for you I went and read another few hundred of his posts trying to imagine the average manifold user making them, I still feel they're very unimpressive. You're probably right in that I don't have a good frame of reference for what 100 vs 120 vs 140 IQ looks like but I've interacted with too many stupid people who share the same patterns of remarks and comments that he consistently makes to give him an IQ of 140 just based on his twitter activity. I don't doubt that he is either

1. making these comments way too fast to put any actual thought into them (he does make a LOT of them)
2. just copying the writing style of the average twitter user as closely as possible, thus fooling me.

Again as I stated in previous comments, I have really no idea what his actual IQ is, I just don't think that most 140iq people would make twitter replies that look like his. To his credit he does clearly demonstrate he is knowledgeable about quite a few things but I see very little creative reasoning being applied with that knowledge.

@Tater Have you seen Nassim Nicholas Taleb's tweets? What IQ do you think they have?

Musk knows how to work people. It's like how US presidents tend to have high IQs but you wouldn't think it from listening to them - you have to hide your power level so the normies empathize with you and vote for you.

@Mira if Musk knew how to work people he would be more popular than he currently is, would he not?

@TiredCliche Musk is extremely popular. For example, we have a market about his IQ, and probably nobody here knows who the CEO of Coca Cola is. So, compared to nearly every other CEO, he is popular.

@Mira He meant popular as in well liked.

Elon is well-liked in the general population.

@IsaacKing Sure but not by the media and politicians. And it's strange for someone who "knows how to work people" to not be liked by those groups.

this market doesn't try to correct for selection bias, such as if Elon chooses to only release the results if they're above a certain number

...

I'm also not going to factor in the chance that he's lying, and will take his word for it if he says he got a certain score

Prediction: Elon will claim to have a score of at least 140, but his actual IQ is around 30-40 points lower than that.

@evergreenemily you really think it might be only 100?

@SophusCorry He once put Pop-Tarts into a toaster horizontally instead of vertically, and then tried to fish them out with his bare hands while screaming "Fuck, it burns!" repeatedly.

He's also made several decisions as head of Twitter/X (e.g. the rebranding, suggesting that removing the block feature was a good idea even though it would violate Play Store/App Store policies, etc.) that make me seriously doubt his problem-solving and critical thinking skills (as well as his patience.)

IQ is primarily a measurement of problem-solving ability, and it doesn't account for social skills, emotional intelligence, long-term planning, etc. - Elon Musk is a skilled manipulator of people, and seems to be at least decent at long-term planning (though he does seem to lack emotional intelligence and empathy.) These are things that would be reflected in his business success, but not his IQ. American capitalism, and in particular upper management, rewards manipulation and charm, not problem-solving or critical thinking.

@evergreenemily Have any ideas for an operationalization of that prediction?

@IsaacKing For Elon's actual IQ? We'd need publicly published IQ test results from an objective test administrator - one who can report a genuine number without any threats of retaliation from Elon. I think that could be operationalized as a market, but I'd also expect a resolution to be fairly unlikely since Elon has a history of pressuring people who don't say what he wants to hear.

If you're asking about:

American capitalism, and in particular upper management, rewards manipulation and charm, not problem-solving or critical thinking.

I think that could be operationalized (personality tests administered to American CEOs by objective professionals in psychology and psychiatry,) but it seems difficult since many CEOs wouldn't want to risk being seen in a negative light, and ensuring objectivity around powerful people is difficult - the knowledge that they can use that power to retaliate against someone via withdrawing sponsorships, PR campaigns, doxxing, etc. means that there's a strong incentive not to be honest about any negative findings. Theoretically, that's what academic tenure is for, but with tenured positions in short supply and the American education system's reliance on big corporate donors...even getting a project like that approved, let alone the funding to do it, seems like another hurdle.

@evergreenemily I meant the former. I don't think a market on that would have an accurate probability, since it will only resolve if Elon agrees to such a test, which he would likely only do if he believed it would have favorable results for him.

@IsaacKing I agree, yeah. If the true number is under 130, I don't think we'll ever know it because Elon wouldn't want that going public. An IQ less than two standard deviations above the mean might put a dent in his supergenius image (even if it's still higher than average - I don't think he'd go public with a result of 120, for instance.)

@evergreenemily I'm not sure whether he's actually that concerned about his image? He's certainly willing to act pretty dumb on Twitter.

@jakgnfdaghfjkahg also my prediction, I'd say he's around 100