I will use my judgement to determine the existence of the bubble. Artificial Intelligence (LLMs) doesn't count because we're already on the path.

Some criteria I'll use:

• The valuation of the biggest companies in the bubble being 3x standard deviation above the 10 year average in the relevant metric (P/E, EV/S, EV/EBITDA...)

• Significant wave of IPOs of the bubble theme

• Companies' stocks are soaring 20%+ a day because they announced something related to the theme of the bubble

• There are decacorns related to the bubble

• The specialized press reports that venture capitalists or private equity are hiring bubble-theme focused specialists and/or making dedicated bubble-themed funds

• There are famous investors and market commentators calling a bubble

• There is a Wikipedia article on the bubble theme

• The bubble must have started at most June 2022, even if it isn't already fully recognized by myself or the public at large. This criteria will require significant judgement. I'll try to use some sort of big bang event to define the start date (e.g.: for AI, it would be ChatGPT launch)

• The bubble can be considered speculative

Of course, not all elements need to be satisfied.

The mere crash of a sector (e.g.: U.S. Commercial Real Estate or Polish Equities) doesn't mean there was a bubble there, it can mean that it faced an external shock.

The bubble needs to have some financial significance, at around $2T dollars of value.

If more than one bubble happens, I'll try to decide based on the start date. Some themes here already had a bubble related with the theme in the past, in which case, I'll make sure it's a distinct bubble than the one that happened in the past. If nonetheless it's impossible to resolve (say a Superconductor bubble based in China that causes China as a whole to bubble), I'll resolve proportionally. But if I become sure that there is a bubble in one theme while being suspicious that there is a bubble on another unrelated theme, I'll resolve only to the theme I become certain first.

When mentioning a country or region, I'll mainly talking about the country's equities, but also its debt and FX markets.

This market will resolve to NO BUBBLE on December 31st 2029 if it is still open.

Finally, I'll have a slightly higher hurdle to resolve to the Other Bubble, requiring significant evidence that there is more than $2T of expeculative value.

I won't bet.