
This question will resolve conditional on the following question resolving YES: Will any year's US Real GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?
Primary Condition: Will any year's US Real GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?
If YES:
This question resolves to whichever listed stock had the highest total return
Measurement period: From December 1st, 2024 00:00 EST until 00:00 EST on January 1st following the year when GDP first exceeded 130% of previous years
"OTHER" resolves as winner if any S&P500 company (as of November 4th, 2024) not explicitly listed above has the highest return
Companies must remain publicly traded throughout the entire measurement period
New companies may be added to the explicit list before December 1st, 2025
If NO:
Question resolves as N/A
Resolution Details:
Return Calculations:
Primary source: Yahoo Finance adjusted closing prices (including dividends and splits)
Backup sources: Bloomberg or FactSet
Foreign stocks evaluated by primary listing (e.g., TSM: NYSE, ASML: NASDAQ)
Corporate Actions:
Ticker/name changes: Tracked to new identity
Spinoffs: Returns include all resulting entities
Cash acquisitions: Returns calculated to completion date
Delistings without compensation: Counted as total loss
Merger Rules:
If listed companies merge or one acquires >50% of another:
Acquired company: Return calculated to deal completion
Acquiring company: Becomes ineligible to win
Stock-for-stock mergers without clear acquirer: Both evaluated to merger completion