This question will resolve conditional on the following question resolving YES: Will any year's US Real GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?
Primary Condition: Will any year's US Real GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?
If YES:
This question resolves to whichever listed stock had the highest total return
Measurement period: From December 1st, 2024 00:00 EST until 00:00 EST on January 1st following the year when GDP first exceeded 130% of previous years
"OTHER" resolves as winner if any S&P500 company (as of November 4th, 2024) not explicitly listed above has the highest return
Companies must remain publicly traded throughout the entire measurement period
New companies may be added to the explicit list before December 1st, 2025
If NO:
Question resolves as N/A
Resolution Details:
Return Calculations:
Primary source: Yahoo Finance adjusted closing prices (including dividends and splits)
Backup sources: Bloomberg or FactSet
Foreign stocks evaluated by primary listing (e.g., TSM: NYSE, ASML: NASDAQ)
Corporate Actions:
Ticker/name changes: Tracked to new identity
Spinoffs: Returns include all resulting entities
Cash acquisitions: Returns calculated to completion date
Delistings without compensation: Counted as total loss
Merger Rules:
If listed companies merge or one acquires >50% of another:
Acquired company: Return calculated to deal completion
Acquiring company: Becomes ineligible to win
Stock-for-stock mergers without clear acquirer: Both evaluated to merger completion
1,000People are also trading
Having an "other" category isn't great because you're just betting on how active I will be to add new tickers.
@JaimeSevilla How does that actually work? If I bet on "Other" today, and a new company C is added tomorrow, but you bet on "Other" after this option is added, and the question resolves C, then does it resolve "Other" for me but not for you?
If I bet on "Other" today, and a new company C is added tomorrow, but you bet on "Other" after this option is added, and the question resolves C, then does it resolve "Other" for me but not for you?
@TamayBesiroglu It would resolve C for both of you, but you would have shares in C equal to the # of shares you have in Other, whereas the other person wouldn't have any shares in C.
Mods cannot remove the Other option. You can state "I won't add any new options" and then people can bet it to 0% so it's not involved, but we can't remove it atm
the basic problem is that if the market expects you to add 10 other options by EOY 2025, they can bet Other up, and get cheap shares in all those companies when they are added. whereas if they think you won't add any other options, the current existing options don't add to 100% so there's free money there by buying Other down (or every other option up). so Other is bound to hover between 0-50ish% in this state of uncertainty. lmk if I'm not making sense
@Bayesian The issue is that there will very likely be be some pennystock that goes up by some extremely large factor. This means that βOtherβ should probably be very high.
I want to ask which of the ones that Iβve currently listed will perform best. Any suggestions for how to do that?
@TamayBesiroglu I've edited it to specify that it resolves OTHER iff a company not in the list but that is currently in the S&P500 has the best performance.