If US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?
10
5.4kแน€4392
2032
22%
Other
12%
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)
11%
NVIDIA (NVDA)
9%
Alphabet (GOOGL)
7%
ASML (ASML)
6%
Palantir (PLTR)
5%
Amazon (AMZN)
5%
AMD (AMD)
4%
Microsoft (MSFT)
4%
Meta (META)
4%
Tesla (TSLA)
4%
Oracle (ORCL)
4%
Apple (AAPL)
3%
Intel Corp (INTC)

This question will resolve conditional on the following question resolving YES: Will any year's US Real GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?

Primary Condition: Will any year's US Real GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?

If YES:

  • This question resolves to whichever listed stock had the highest total return

  • Measurement period: From December 1st, 2024 00:00 EST until 00:00 EST on January 1st following the year when GDP first exceeded 130% of previous years

  • "OTHER" resolves as winner if any S&P500 company (as of November 4th, 2024) not explicitly listed above has the highest return

  • Companies must remain publicly traded throughout the entire measurement period

  • New companies may be added to the explicit list before December 1st, 2025

If NO:

  • Question resolves as N/A

Resolution Details:

  1. Return Calculations:

    • Primary source: Yahoo Finance adjusted closing prices (including dividends and splits)

    • Backup sources: Bloomberg or FactSet

    • Foreign stocks evaluated by primary listing (e.g., TSM: NYSE, ASML: NASDAQ)

  2. Corporate Actions:

    • Ticker/name changes: Tracked to new identity

    • Spinoffs: Returns include all resulting entities

    • Cash acquisitions: Returns calculated to completion date

    • Delistings without compensation: Counted as total loss

  3. Merger Rules:

    • If listed companies merge or one acquires >50% of another:

      • Acquired company: Return calculated to deal completion

      • Acquiring company: Becomes ineligible to win

      • Stock-for-stock mergers without clear acquirer: Both evaluated to merger completion

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