Background

• On Aug 11, 2025, President Trump issued Executive Order 14333 declaring a crime emergency in Washington, D.C., shifting MPD to federal purposes and activating D.C. National Guard support; additional measures followed on Aug 25. (whitehouse.gov)

• On Oct 8, 2025, reporting indicated Texas National Guard troops arrived at a staging site in Illinois amid plans targeting the Chicago area; Illinois and Chicago filed suit. Related reporting described planned expansions (e.g., Memphis).

• Trump and advisors have publicly discussed invoking the Insurrection Act if governors or courts impede deployments.

Resolution criteria

• “Military” means National Guard (any status: state active duty/Title 32 or federalized/Title 10) or active‑duty U.S. armed forces. Federal civilian agents (e.g., ICE, FBI, DHS/DOJ task forces) do not count.

• All entries resolve at midnight EST on 1/1/2027, unless otherwise specified

• “In a city” means troops are on duty within that city’s legal boundaries. Staging outside the city does not count unless troops subsequently operate inside the city. Minimum threshold: either (a) ≥24 hours of on‑duty presence in the city, or (b) an official order explicitly deploying troops to that city that is executed (troops actually arrive).

• Please note this market refers to deployments outside of disaster relief

• Ambiguously worded answers (e.g., unspecified city or force) may be edited for clarity before resolution; otherwise they risk N/A.