Will Xi Jinping further toughen language on Taiwan during CCP's 20th Party Congress?
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resolved Oct 22
Resolved
NO

Resolved YES if Xi’s 2019 assertion that the cross-strait division cannot “be passed on from generation to generation” – or some other time-bound language – become official CCP doctrine in this year’s work report.

Xi noticeably toughened the section on Taiwan in his work report to the 19th Party Congress. “We stand firm in safeguarding China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and will never allow the historical tragedy of national division to repeat itself. Any separatist activity is certain to meet with the resolute opposition of the Chinese people,” he declared. Xi also repeatedly stressed the importance of the “1992 Consensus” for cross-strait relations; at the time Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen had been in office for just over a year and Beijing may have still hoped to persuade her to endorse the nebulous agreement on “one China.”

Since then, Xi’s language toward Taiwan had hardened still further, most notably in a 2019 speech and a white paper on Taiwan released in August of this year. Xi has been asserting more openly that he is unwilling to wait much longer to fulfill the long-held dream of absorbing Taiwan.

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predicted NO

China wraps up 20th Party Congress, The charter was amended to “resolutely oppose and contain Taiwan independence.” Same attitude, same slogan and Xi didn't say any tough words on Taiwan as well.

@stormtk293 I don’t see any justification for this statement from the words of Xi’s report. I thought is language was neutral and even relatively weak compared to what I expected. Certainly no time bound language, and “never renounce the use of force” is hardly a tough statement.

predicted YES

@BTE Agreed, so far Xi was using warning tone as usual. Even when Xi said “The complete reunification of the nation absolutely must be realized, and it absolutely can be realized!”, it just shows the same determination as usual. Yu Maochun, a professor of military history and modern China at the United States Naval Academy once explained US-China relationship will be reshaped according to China's intention and ability. Blinken's warning just proved this, it's an official response to Xi's taiwan reunification slogan.

We'll see if taiwan topic raise again before end of the week, most likely it won't.

predicted NO

On Taiwan, the big headline was that Xi reiterated China’s willingness to use force to incorporate Taiwan into the People’s Republic. “We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary,” he said.

“The complete reunification of the nation absolutely must be realized, and it absolutely can be realized!” Xi proclaimed.

China has never renounced the option of using force to annex Taiwan, but in high-level policy speeches leaders usually prefer to emphasize China’s preference for “peaceful reunification.” In that context, it’s notable that Xi explicitly said this warning was “aimed at interference by external forces and the extremely small minority of ‘Taiwan independence’ splittists.” In other words, Xi was giving a high-profile warning to the United States and the administration of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen.

And in case anyone in the Biden administration missed the point, Xi reiterated his opposition to any foreign involvement in the Taiwan issue, insisting that “resolving the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese, a matter that must be resolved by the Chinese.”

Xi’s actual speech at the Party Congress was only an abridged version of the complete work report. Interestingly, the full version did include the usual references to the “1992 Consensus” and “One Country, Two Systems” as the baselines of China’s Taiwan policy. But it’s notable that the topline summary in Xi’s speech left those out, preferring to focus on its warning tone rather than offering any positive vision for cross-strait relations.

“China has achieved comprehensive control over Hong Kong, turning it from chaos to governance, China has also waged a major struggle against Taiwan separatism and is determined and able to oppose territorial integrity”, Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a speech at the opening of the once-in-five-year Communist Party congress in Beijing.

Xi said China reserves the option of “taking all measures necessary” against “interference by outside forces” on the issue of Taiwan. Xi spoke firmly about China’s resolve for reunification with the self-governed island, which Beijing considers part of its territory.

“We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort,” Xi said in Chinese, according to an official translation. “But, we will never promise to renounce the use of force. And we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary.”

“This is directed solely at interference by outside forces and a few separatists seeking Taiwan independence,” he said, emphasizing that resolving the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese to resolve.

Here is the official transcript of Xi's 2 hour speech released by News.CN. Taiwan related time stamp as below.

1. Time stamp: 10-16 10:16:44

落实“爱国者治港”原则,香港局势实现由乱到治的重大转折。面对“台独”势力分裂活动和外部势力干涉台湾事务的严重挑衅,我们坚决开展反分裂、反干涉重大斗争,展示了我们维护国家主权和领土完整、反对“台独”的坚强决心和强大能力。

2. Time stamp: 10-16 11:36:02

坚持贯彻新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略,坚定不移推进祖国统一大业。我们始终尊重、关爱、造福台湾同胞,继续致力于促进两岸经济文化交流合作,推动两岸共同弘扬中华文化,促进两岸同胞心灵契合。解决台湾问题是中国人自己的事,要由中国人来决定。我们坚持以最大诚意、尽最大努力争取和平统一的前景,但决不承诺放弃使用武力,保留采取一切必要措施的选项,这针对的是外部势力干涉和极少数“台独”分裂分子及其分裂活动,绝非针对广大台湾同胞。国家统一、民族复兴的历史车轮滚滚向前,祖国完全统一一定要实现,也一定能够实现!

@stormtk293 This is basically the same tone as 19th congress. No time-bound language, new slogan or new tough words showed up yet. There will be more Taiwan topics from the following week and press confreres, we'll see if Xi further toughen language on Taiwan. If not, this market will be resolved NO.

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