Chinese Communist Party 20th National Party Congress

Few leaders of any state have achieved the heights of power and prestige reserved for Chinese President Xi Jinping. President is actually only his third most important political title, the most important being General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) followed by Supreme Commander of the People’s Liberation Army.

It is at the National People’s Congress, essentially the CCP’s convention held every five years where the ceremonial announcement and formal introduction of the leaders chosen to form the next Chinese government takes place.

Norm Buster

Western political systems have long operated based on a combination of norms detailed written documents that lay out the processes and procedures for maintaining the continuity of government and implementing the will of the people. In China things operate very differently, with the norms established by Deng Xiaoping shaping the actions of his successors in much the same way US Presidents prior to Franklin Roosevelt retired after two terms because of the guiding norm and precedent established by George Washington.

The most speculated on news that will come from the 20th People’s Congress will be the selection of the 25 member Politburo and its seven member Politburo Standing Committee, which is where the real power and policy emanates from in the Chinese system.

Trade War

News from Washington on the eve of Xi’s big party is ominous and getting worse by the day. Just this past week Biden’s Commerce Department basically eliminated China’s access to the American high-end semiconductor industry by instituting the most sweeping and strategically targeted export controls in more than a decade.

Many are anticipating the strongest retaliation in economic/trade policy from China to date, but nobody is yet guessing how bold Xi will be. The People’s Congress provides Xi with the perfect stage to voice his grievances and show his people he won’t be intimidated, he won’t back down in the face of US pressure, he will fight alongside his Wolf Warrior diplomatic corps for his people.

Foreign Policy

Unfortunately for the Secretary General a little old lady from the US turned up the heat on the issue of Taiwan from simmering to a slow boil over the last few months. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi did what she does better than any woman to ever live, defied the demands of the patriarchy. Despite literal hysteria across China, and critically not offering Xi any way to save face on the issue, Pelosi visited followed by a steady stream of US politicians since including multiple state governors.

Covid Zero

This tournament is intended to see if prediction markets can bring any insight to forecasting the words and actions of the most mysterious man alive.

1. USD prizes will be awarded to the top 3 in total profits:

   • 1st - $100

   • 2nd - $75

   • 3rd - $25

2. Only one account per person can trade in this market.

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