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MANIFOLD
Will I be a victim of identity theft by the end of 2028
2
Ṁ100Ṁ110
2028
37%
chance

Resolves yes if someone gains unauthorized access to my google, microsoft, slack, social media etc. accounts, or profits >=1000 usd/causes >= 1000 usd of financial harm to me by successfully impersonating me in some other manner

  • Update 2026-10-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The resolution criteria includes credit card theft.

  • Update 2026-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Hacking the creator's Manifold account counts as unauthorized access.

    • The market will only resolve YES if the identity theft was not motivated by the prospect of earning Manifold mana.

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Would hacking your manifold account count?

@Velaris Yes. But if someone wants to do that, please just let me know. You can pen test me

Aside from that, this market will only resolve yes if the identity theft in question was not motivated or instigated by the prospect of earning manifold mana

bought Ṁ25 NO

Includes credit card theft?