🇺🇸🇮🇷 American boots on the ground in Iran by the end of Trump's term?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the end of President Donald Trump's term on January 20, 2029, there is credible evidence of U.S. military personnel being deployed on Iranian soil. Acceptable sources for verification include official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, reputable news organizations, or other authoritative reports confirming such deployment. If no such evidence is available by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that for a YES resolution, the U.S. military personnel must be fighting on the ground.

Spies or CIA agents will not be counted.

The creator noted that previous U.S. interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan are examples that would have resolved to YES.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 94% chance (31 traders, as of Apr 30, 2026).